GARCH (1,1) models are widely used for modelling processes with time varying volatility. These include financial time series, which can be particularly heavy tailed. In this paper, we propose a logtransform-based least squares estimator (LSE) for the GARCH (1,1) model. The asymptotic properties of the LSE are studied under very mild moment conditions for the errors. We establish the consistency...

Extreme value theory is widely used financial applications such as risk analysis, forecasting and pricing models. One of the major difficulties in the applications to finance and economics is that the assumption of independence of time series observations is generally not satisfied, so that the dependent extremes may not necessarily be in the domain of attraction of the classical generalised ex...

Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components. Special cases and relationships with previous...

This paper addresses the question of how changes in stock market wealth and housing wealth affect consumption expenditure in Australia. We approach the problem using a panel of Australian states, for which we construct data on housing and stock market wealth. We estimate the link between consumption and the components of wealth using panel-data estimation techniques, including fixed-effects ins...

We show theoretically and empirically how real and financial frictions amplify the impact of uncertainty shocks on firms’investment, employment, debt (term structure of debt growth), and cash holding. We start by building a model with real and financial frictions, alongside uncertainty shocks, and show how adding financial frictions to the model almost doubles the negative impact of uncertainty...

I analyze an extension of the New Keynesian model that features overlapping generations finitely lived agents and (stochastic) transitions to inactivity. In contrast with standard model, proposed framework allows for existence rational expectations equilibria asset price bubbles. study conditions under which bubble-driven fluctuations may emerge type monetary policy rules prevent them. conclude...

In this paper we provide a unified methodology for conducting likelihood-based inference on the unknown parameters of a general class of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models, characterized by both a leverage effect and jumps in returns. Given the nonlinear/non-Gaussian state-space form, approximating the likelihood for the parameters is conducted with output generated by the particle...

abstract in this study, we applied recently developed panel unit root and cointegration techniques to examine the long-run real income per capita and price elasticities for demand of electricity in selected middle east and north african (mena) countries using an annual data series from 1990 to 2011.our main finding from the panel analysis is that the demand for electricity is highly price elast...

Is the observed large increase in consumer indebtedness since the 1980s beneficial for U.S. consumers? This paper quantitatively studies the macroeconomic and welfare implications of relaxing borrowing constraints when consumers exhibit a hyperbolic discounting preference. The model can capture two contrasting views: the positive view, which links increased indebtedness to financial innovation ...

In empirical work on multivariate financial time series, it is common to postulate a Multivariate GARCH model. We show that the popular Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of MGARCH models is very sensitive to outliers in the data. We propose to use robust M-estimators and provide asymptotic theory for M-estimators of MGARCH models. The Monte Carlo study and empirical application docume...