What determines the direction of spread of currency crises? We examine data on waves of currency crises in 1992, 1994, 1997, and 1998 to evaluate several hypotheses on the determinants of contagion. We simultaneously consider trade competition, financial links, and institutional similarity to the “ground-zero” country as potential drivers of contagion. To overcome data limitations and account f...

— We empirically analyze the effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) involvement on the risk of entering a currency crisis and, respectively, the outcome of such a crisis. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention are more likely to experience currency crises. In a second step, we analyze the IMF’s impact on a country’s decision to adjust the exchange rat...

although capital inflows affect positively economies in long-run, it is possible to generate somehow destructive effects if there is no any control on financial markets. this study tries to explore main determinants of large capital inflows episodes to emerging markets. it is also investigated whether the large capital inflows episodes lead to financial crises in forms of sudden stop phenomenon...

The instability of international financial markets, as exhibited by persistent periodic crises, is an important issue for all market participants. This paper presents an alternative agent-based network theory of financial crises derived from recent developments in complexity science, and applies it to short-term currency crises. The theory, despite being parsimonious, is capable of generating c...

In this paper, we attempt to analyze currency crises within the decision theory framework. In this regard, we employ fuzzy system modeling with fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering to develop perception based decision matrix. We try to build a prescriptive model in order to determine the best approximate reasoning schemas. We use the underlying behavior of the market participants during the crisis. W...

abstract financial crises and currency instabilities within developing and emerging economies during the last decade had a tremendous impact on the economic performance and increased vulnerability of economies against domestic and foreign shocks. the timing of capital liberalization is one of the significant debates among other issues related to currency instability, and it would be more conven...