In order to assess the effect of Social Security reform on current and future workers, it is essential to accurately characterize the initial situations of representative workers affected by reform. For the purpose of analyzing typical reforms, the most important characteristic of a worker is the level and pattern of his or her preretirement earnings. Under the current system, pensions are dete...

This paper documents a dramatic increase in the college enrollment rate of women from 1955 to 1980 and asks a quantitative question: to what extent can such increase be accounted for by the change in the female cohort-specific college wage premium? I develop and calibrate an overlapping generations model with discrete schooling choice. I find that changes in the life-cycle earnings differential...

In this paper we exploit a unique database that merges longitudinal earnings data on Pennsylvanian workers with national death records to study the detailed nature of the correlation between earnings and mortality. We find that the estimates typically reported in the literature, which are based on single years of earnings data, are likely to understate substantially the strength of the associat...

Several studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that stocks with higher forecast dispersion also experience poorer operating performance in the future. We...

In this study, we investigate the association between information technology (IT) spending and future firm performance. Critics contend that greater expenditures on IT rarely lead to superior financial results, citing studies that compare firm performance to current IT spending. But valuation and stock-return studies have found a positive association between the market value of firms and their ...

Researchers who study violence against women often face problems when trying to understand the causes of individual changes in the context of group differences, targeted interventions, and institutional shifts. The authors explore these problems through research on the connections among women's earnings, welfare, and protection orders. The authors use multigroup, piecewise, latent growth curve ...

company’s value depends on its longterm ability to generate cash to fund value-creating growth and pay dividends to its shareholders. Even so, investment managers commonly base their stock selections on short-term earnings and portfolio tracking error rather than discounted cash flow (DCF)—the standard for valuing financial assets in well-functioning capital markets. Financial analysts fixate o...

Moody’s analysts and sell-side equity analysts adjust GAAP earnings as part of their research. We show that adjusted earnings definitions of Moody’s analysts are significantly lower than those of equity analysts when companies exhibit higher downside risk, as measured by volatility in idiosyncratic stock returns, volatility in negative market returns, poor earnings, and loss status. Relative to...

In this paper we extend the standard human capital model with the probability of becoming unemployed and uncertainty about future earnings. Our analysis deviates from earlier human capital cum uncertainty models in assuming risk neutral decision-makers. This allows a straightforward comparison with the standard model and also facilitates calculations of unemployment and uncertainty accounted ra...