We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...

We compare optimal and simple interest-rate rules. Our model features optimizing agents, monopolistic competition in both product and labor markets, and one-period nominal contracts (for wages alone or for both wages and prices) signed before shocks are known. Exact solutions ensure that we obtain correct welfare rankings. Optimal rules maximize the unconditional expected utility of the represe...

Quantifying the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation, and so we investigate patterns and trends in correlations and tail dependence over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) during the period 1973-2009. We use the standard DCC and DECO correlation models, but we also develop a nonstationary DECO mod...

We develop a random-matching model to study the price dynamics of monies produced privately according time-consuming mining technology. For our leading example, there exists unique equilibrium where value money increases over time and reaches steady state. There is also continuum perfect-foresight equilibria inflates bursts gradually time. Initially, held for speculative motive, but it acquires...

We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines agents’ confidence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven traps are not useful guide for enhancing welfare this model. Raising the inflation target, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing use of governm...

We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages (standard) monetary policy rule contribute slow response In turn, labor market segmentation at the level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps fast sector-specific est...

This paper utilizes the nonparametric functional autoregressive approach (FAR) to model the time-varying distribution of UK monthly inflation rates using disaggregated cross-sectional data. Our approach is free of any assumptions on the class or structure of the density functions themselves, or the number of dimensions in which the densities may vary. The “pseudo real time” in-sample forecastin...

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shock...

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information cont...

This paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis. Aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation. While ‘moderate’ participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy, lo...