We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty using a Markov jumplinear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach. We approximating the uncertainty that policymakers face by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows us to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that we...

This paper analyzes which type of individuals’ characteristics drive behaviors in a public good game, depending on strategic uncertainty. The results of the laboratory experiment emphasize that advantageous inequity aversion has a significant effect on the contribution decision but beliefs on the others’ contribution and risk aversion are the characteristics that mainly lead the contribution de...

We characterize time-consistent dynamic risk measures. In discrete time in context of uncertainty, we canonically associate a class of probability measures to any dynamic risk measure when the filtration comes from a process bounded at each time. Dynamic risk measures are conditional risk measures on a bigger space. In continuous time, we characterize time consistency, studying composition of c...

the major challenge facing iranian economy is its overwhelming dependence on the oil exports. however, the world oil price has been subject to a lot of shocks, which have destabilized the iranian terms of trade. hence, this paper empirically examines the effect of terms of trade volatility on iran’s economic growth over 1967-2006. for this purpose, based on a garch model, a proxy for the terms ...

Firms with private information about the outcomes of production under uncertainty may face capital (liquidity) constraints that prevent them from attaining efficient levels of investment in a world with costly and/or imperfect monitoring. As an alternative, we examine the efficiency of a simple pooling scheme designed to provide a public (cooperative) supply of liquidity that results in the fir...

Article history: Received 20 June 2014 Received in revised form 25 September 2014 Accepted 26 September 2014 Available online 5 October 2014 This paper investigates the time-varying impact of oil price uncertainty on stock prices in China using weekly data on ten sectoral indices over the period January 1997–February 2014. The estimation of a bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean model suggests that oil ...

This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment and its implications for economic growth, focusing on the effects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. If the marginal utility of a surviving child is convex, then there will be a precautionary demand for child...

The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals* In this Paper, we suggest a new motivation for why central banks appear averse to reversing recent changes in their interest rate. We show, in a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, that there is a learning cost associated with interest rate reversals. A policy that frequently reverse...

Strong sustainability, according to the common definition, requires that different natural and economic capital stocks have to be maintained as physical quantities separately. Yet, in a world of uncertainty this cannot be guaranteed. To therefore define strong sustainability under uncertainty in an operational manner, we propose to use the concept of viability. Viability means that the differen...

Recent developments in econometrics and economic theory attest the growing evidence of strong uncertainty. The paper argues that these developments both question seriously the methodological foundations of the mainstream macroeconomics and support Keynes’s powerful concepts and theory. It emphasizes how replacing ‘risk’ with strong uncertainty suffices to transform the standard four-macro-marke...