Received XXXX; accepted XXXX Abstract Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from eleven approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 year return periods. Flood interval hist...

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to esti...

Investors’ search for successful forecasting models leads the data generating process for financial returns to change over time which means that individual return forecasting models can at best hope to uncover evidence of ‘local’ predictability. We illustrate this point on a suite of forecasting models used to predict US stock returns and propose an adaptive forecast combination approach. Most ...

BACKGROUND In the industrial world, non-specific back and neck pain (BNP) is the largest diagnostic group underlying sick-listing. For patients with subacute and chronic (= full-time sick-listed for 43 - 84 and 85 - 730 days, respectively) BNP, cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation was compared with primary care. The specific aim was to answer the question: within an 18-month follow-up, will the...

This paper examines the risk-return trade-off in Spain during the last 15 years. The study is developed in a multi-factor framework where not only the market risk is considered but also potential changes in the investment opportunity set. Although previous studies find no clear evidence about a positive and significant relation between return and risk, favourable evidence can be obtained if a n...

struggle upon them. The causes have been many : a victory, a reverse, trench warfare, stalemate, sudden social upheavals, rising of prices, air shocks, atrocities, periods of long waiting for news, lack of nourishment. In conclusion, the very slow return to what we cannot yet call the normal conditions, has left a sad jetsam of permanently disordered minds which will take years to collect, and ...