[1] The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural var...

To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a wa...

In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the model-mean increase in global mean surface air temperature T under the 1pctCO2 scenario (atmospheric CO(2) increasing at 1% yr(-1)) during the second doubling of CO(2) is 40% larger than the transient climate response (TCR), i.e. the increase in T during the first doubling. We identify four possible contributory effects. First, t...

Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes inmidlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected chan...

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws (b) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and b are test...

Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past and future precipitation over the lake were assessed using 42 model runs obtained from 26 General Circulation ...

Quantifying uncertainty in runoff changes has profound implications for future investigations and will support global climate model improvement. We analyze the from outputs of 5th 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 CMIP6) decompose projected into three main sources: internal variability, uncertainty, scenario uncertainty. The results indicate that 73% 72% land area, respectively,...

The global climate models (GCMs) performances of the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5, are evaluated anticipate expected changes in over Egypt. Thirteen GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) both CMIPs were used for this purpose. future projections two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5) shared socio-econom...

Abstract This is the first study to show global Cut-off Low (COL) activity in 46 models participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The COL historical simulations for period 1979–2005 obtained from CMIP5 CMIP6 their ensembles are compared with ERA5 reanalysis using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. results that simulate spatial distribution of COLs ...

Abstract Projecting the climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources relies scenarios simulated by general circulation models (GCMs), which requires a systematic comprehensive assessment of GCMs’ simulation performances at regional scale. This study evaluates precipitation over Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) six from Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), corresponding pr...