During elections, political polls provide critical data for the support each candidate receives. For that reason, the measurement of questions asking about candidate support has been receiving some research attention. As the online survey is increasingly becoming a widely used tool for public opinion and election polls, evaluation of the measurement error associated with this survey mode is of ...

A modification of the ''winner-take-all'' rule for awarding state electoral votes in US presidential elections is proposed. The modified rule has the potential of turning a state that is currently ''safe'' for either major party candidate into a ''battleground'' one, forcing presidential candidates to compete in the state and encouraging state voters (interested in the election result) to vote ...

Memory for feelings is subject to fading and bias over time. In 2 studies, the authors examined whether the magnitude and direction of bias depend on the type of feeling being recalled: emotion or mood. A few days after the U.S. Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, participants reported how they felt about the election outcome (emotion) and how they felt in general (mood). A month after the...

This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 19...

In elections, political preferences are strongly linked to the expectations of the electoral winner—people usually expect their favorite candidate to win. This link could be driven by wishful thinking (a biasing influence of preferences), driven by a biasing influence of expectations on one’s wishes, or produced spuriously. To examine these competing possibilities in the 2008 U.S. presidential ...

While significant research has demonstrated that prediction markets are highly accurate indicators of the real-time status of an election, few studies within political economics or political science have used them as a tool to understand voting behavior. Assuming their accuracy, we utilize these markets to measure the primary determinants of the 2008 United States election. First, we use electr...