Market Year Average (MYA) prices enter into payment calculations for Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC), two commodity program alternatives available in the 2013 Farm Bill (see here for more details). The distribution of MYA prices will influence payment levels under both programs. Hence, quantifying the potential MYA price distributions is important for evaluating c...

Global climate anomalies affect world economies and primary commodity prices. One of the more pronounced climate anomalies is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study I examine the relationship between ENSO and world commodity prices using monthly time series of the sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region, and real prices of thirty primary agricultural commodities. I ...

Abstract Mathematical programming is used to examine the economic potential of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in U.S. agriculture and forestry. Mitigation practices are entered into a spatially differentiated sector model and are jointly assessed with conventional agricultural production. Competition among practices is examined under a wide range of hypothetical carbon prices. Simulation ...

There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has cau...

rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO 2010). Small scale producers in many developing countries were not able to reap the benefits of high food prices during the 2007-2008 food price crises. And yet, this upward food price tren...

abstract autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) has been one of the widely used linear models in time series forecasting during the past three decades. recent studies revealed the superiority of artificial neural network (ann) over traditional linear models in forecasting. but neither arima nor anns can be adequate in modeling and forecasting time series since the first model cannot d...

Introduction World agriculture is at a turning point: economic growth, energy needs, and climate change redefine the equations of agricultural supply and demand and contribute to accelerate food prices. Biofuels have been particularly high on the global agenda largely due to rising concerns about national energy security, high energy prices, and global climate change, as well as the income expe...

Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are likely to increase the prices for fossil fuel based energy. Higher energy prices would raise farmers' expenditure on machinery fuels, irrigation water, farm chemicals, and grain drying. To compute the economic net impacts of increased farm input costs on agricultural production after market adjustment, we employ a price endogenous sector model f...

BACKGROUND Policymakers and researchers frequently compare the prices of medicines between countries. Such comparisons often serve as barometers of how pricing and reimbursement policies are performing. The aim of this study was to examine methodological challenges to comparing generic drug prices. METHODS We calculated all commonly used price indices based on 2013 IMS Health data on sales of...

In his inaugural presidential address to the Population Association of America in 1978, Richard Easterlin challenged the orthodox neoclassical economic model of fertility originally suggested by Becker and subsequently elaborated by Becker and Lewis. While maintaining an economic approach to fertility, Easterlin's model was based upon the notion of material aspirations which changed systematic...