In this paper the value at risk (VaR) forecasts are compared using three different GARCH models; ARCH(1), GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1). The implemented method is a one-day ahead out of sample forecast of the VaR. The forecasts are evaluated using the Kupiec test with a five percent significance level. The focus is on three different markets; commodities, equities and exchange rates. The goal of t...

This work aims at comparing two models of fuzzy distribution: Normal and Laplace, whenever they are inside the context of possibilistic mean-variance model described by Li et al. in [6], where fuzzy Normal distribution is used. We propose to make a comparison using their model, but instead we apply fuzzy Laplace distribution. We also demonstrate the theorems which are necessary for the inclusio...

The fund manager always pronounces “the high returns from hedge fund are along with low risk. Is the performance of hedge fund manager really good? In this study, the market-timing ability and performance consistency on hedge fund manager are tested. The Sharpe ratio was employed to implement the consistency of performance for mutual fund in the previous literature. Due to the non-normally dist...

JEL classification: C51 C52 G11

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Suppose that N is a Z+-valued random variable and that X,X1, X2, . . . is a sequence of independent and identically distributed Z+ random variables independent of N . In this paper we are interested in properties of the conditional variable Nk D =(N | ∑Nj=1 Xj = k). In particular, we want to know the asymptotic behavior of the conditional mean ENk or the conditional variance var Nk as k → ∞. We...

Introduction Algebraic speciications can be used for the speciication of var