In weather and climate prediction studies it often turns out to be the case that the multi-model ensemble mean prediction has the best prediction skill scores. One possible explanation is that the major part of the model error is random and is averaged out in the ensemble mean. In the standard multi-model ensemble approach, the models are integrated in time independently and the predicted state...

The multimodel ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context (Fiore et al., 2009) is used here as an example of how a pre-inspection, diagnosis and selection of an ensemble, can produce more reliable results. The procedure is contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging model simulations, assuming different models produce independent results, and using the diversity...

BACKGROUND Varicella remains an important public health issue in China. In this study we explored the effect of weather conditions on the incidence of varicella in the temperate city of Jinan, Eastern China during 2012-2014 to inform public health prevention and control measures. METHODS Data on reported cases of varicella were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System. Meteorol...

A number of key problems in atmospheric chemistry are shaped by the strength and character of the various mechanisms acting to move and mix air in the upper troposphere. These transport processes are examined from a mechanistic perspective, with primary emphasis on the tropopause andmiddle-troposphere regions in the extratropics. The roles of vertical and horizontal transport “barriers” are exp...

Dielectric relaxation spectroscopy of pressure amorphized hexagonal ice shows that water's high-density amorphous form relaxes in approximately 1 s at 140 K and 1 GPa and that the relaxation is virtually unaffected by pressure. This indicates that the amorph is an ultraviscous liquid above 140 K, the same as would be obtained by supercooling water at 1 GPa through its ice VI phase boundary, and...

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Cirrus clouds above Zurich's local mountain Uetliberg (871m). Cirrus clouds exist in the upper troposphere, at altitudes between 7 and 17 km. Because cirrus clouds cover up to 30% of the Earth surface they play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate (photo: SPARC Office; feel free to provide photos for future SPARC newsletters).