MEDICUS (modeling, explanation, and diagnostic support for complex, uncertain subject matters) is an intelligent modeling and diagnosis environment designed to support the construction of explanation models and diagnostic reasoning in domains where knowledge is complex, fragile, and uncertain. MEDICUS is developed in collaboration with several medical institutions in the epidemiological fields ...

Bayesian networks are a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty that has been widely adopted in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Student modeling, i.e., the process of having an ITS build a model of relevant student’s traits/states during interaction, is a task permeated with uncertainty, which naturally calls for probabilistic approaches. In this chapter, I will describe techniques and issues i...

Conventional Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) do not acknowledge uncertainty about the student's knowledge. Yet, both the outcome of any teaching intervention and the exact state of the student's knowledge are uncertain. In recent years, researchers have made startling progress in the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. Building on these developments, we describe an ITS arch...

Progress in statistical computation often leads to advances in statistical modeling. For example, it is surprisingly common that an existing model is reparameterized, solely for computational purposes, but then this new conŽ guration motivates a new family of models that is useful in applied statistics. One reason why this phenomenon may not have been noticed in statistics is that reparameteriz...