We consider the problem of reinforcement learning in factored-state MDPs in the setting in which learning is conducted in one long trial with no resets allowed. We show how to extend existing efficient algorithms that learn the conditional probability tables of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) given their structure to the case in which DBN structure is not known in advance. Our method learns th...

In designing computational assistance, one must consider various domain variables as well as individual user differences that influence the effectiveness and transparency of assistance. In this paper, we document a causal analysis under the Bayesian framework for designing computational assistance. In particular, we adopt dynamic Bayesian networks to model the dynamics among the identified fact...

To ensure learning, game-based learning environments must incorporate assessment mechanisms, e.g. Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs). ITSs are focused on recognising and influencing the learner’s emotional or motivational states. This research focuses on designing and implementing an affective student model for intelligent gaming, which reasons about the learner’s emotional state from cognitiv...

In an effort to meet the changing landscape of education many departments and universities are offering more online courses – a move that is likely to impact every department in some way (Rover et al., 2013). This will require more instructors create online courses, and we describe here how agents and dynamic Bayesian networks can be used to inform this process. Other innovations in instruction...

We propose dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based synchronous and asynchronous multi-stream models for noise-robust automatic speech recognition. In these models, multiple noise-robust features are combined into a single DBN to obtain better performance than any single feature system alone. Results on the Aurora 2.0 noisy speech task show significant improvements of our synchronous model over bot...

In this paper, we introduce a model of engagement dynamics in spelling learning. The model relates input behavior to learning, and explains the dynamics of engagement states. By systematically incorporating domain knowledge in the preprocessing of the extracted input behavior, the predictive power of the features is significantly increased. The model structure is the dynamic Bayesian network in...

This paper presents a novel context-aware methodology for modelling and measuring user-perceived quality of experience (QoE) over time. In particular, we create a context-aware model for QoE modelling and measurement using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) and a context-aware state-space approach. The proposed model is then used to infer and determine users’ QoE in a sequential manner. We perform...

Dynamic Bayesian network is the extension of Bayesian network in solving time series problems .It can be well dealt with the time-varying multivariable problem. A state model is given based on Dynamic Bayesian network. The model can more accurately describe the relationship between the system state and the influencing factors. Single-step and multi-step prediction algorithms are given to predic...

Recent research into reconstructing biological networks has examined the use of dynamic Bayesian networks to model time-series data. While intuitively appealing, dynamic Bayesian network modeling makes assumptions about the properties of time-series data which may not hold for sparsely sampled datasets. This work argues that static Bayesian networks may be a more appropriate model for such data...

A feasibility study of using of Dynamic Bayesian Networks in combination with ARMA modeling in exchange rate prediction is presented. A new algorithm (ARMA-DBN) is constructed and applied to the exchange rate forecast of RMB. Results show that the improved dynamic Bayesian forecast algorithm has better performance than the standard ARMA model.