We consider model selection for non-linear dynamic equations with more candidate variables than observations, based on a general class of non-linear-in-the-variables functions, addressing possible location shifts by impulse-indicator saturation. After an automatic search delivers a simplified congruent terminal model, an encompassing test can be implemented against an investigator’s preferred n...

Gravity Equations are broadly used to estimate the impacts of trade impediments on trade flows. It is often stated that results are implausibly high. In theoretical foundations of the gravity equation, trade costs usually enter as "icebergmelting-costs". This paper offers an alternative approach to model trade costs. From a microeconomic point of view, trade costs should depend on trade input p...

In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricit...

This paper proposes a new panel model of cross-sectional dependence. The model has a number of potential structural interpretations that relate to economic phenomena such as herding in financial markets. On an econometric level, it provides a flexible approach of modelling interactions across panel units and can generate endogenous cross-sectional dependence that can resemble the dependence tha...

We examine the response of Medicare Advantage contracts to published quality ratings. We identify the effect of star ratings on premiums using a regression discontinuity design that exploits plausibly random variation around rating thresholds. We find that 3, 3.5, and 4-star contracts in 2009 significantly increased their 2010 monthly premiums by $20 or more relative to contracts just below the...

A multiproduct cost function is estimated for English higher education institutions using a panel of data from recent years. The panel approach allows estimation by means of a random parameter stochastic frontier model which provides considerable new insights in that it allows the impact on costs of inter-institutional differences in the cost function itself to be distinguished from inter-insti...

In this study we suggest a covariance structure model to estimate intergenerational income correlations. Within this framework we adjust for lifecycle bias which arises when lifetime earnings are approximated by current income. Furthermore, the suggested empirical strategy is immune to the attenuation bias problem of linear models. This is a particularly desirable feature when only small survey...

We specify a model of labour supply with job offer restrictions. A job offer is defined by a wage rate and working hours. The number of job offers is restricted, and follows a Poisson distribution. Individuals choose the alternative with the highest utility level. Three specifications are estimated: a basic specification, a specification in which the number of job offers depends on characterist...

General unrestricted models (GUMs) may include important individual determinants, many small relevant effects, and irrelevant variables. Automatic model selection procedures can handle perfect collinearity and more candidate variables than observations, allowing substantial dimension reduction from GUMs with salient regressors, lags, non-linear transformations, and multiple location shifts, tog...

This study examines the proper estimation of trip demand and economic benefits for visitors to recreation sites when past-season trip information is elicited from travelers intercepted on-site. We show that the proper weighting of past season counts is different from the standard on-site correction appropriate for current-season counts. We find that for our sample of lake visitors relatively st...