This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined st...

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector specific FDI and CO2 emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the 1980-2007 period, we find causality running from FDI in polluting intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO2 emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO2 emissions an...

Several studies abound that concentrated on oil production and the environment, exploration socio-economic conditions, contributions of crude consumption to growth Nigerian state, etc. But there are no recent investigating production- GDP nexus. Hence, main goal this study is explore contribution national from an oil-dependent economy Annual time series data its rate represented side nexus whil...

In this paper, I derive an expression for the asymptotic bias in the OLS estimator of the partial effect of a regressor on the dependent variable when there is reverse causality and all variables in the model are covariance stationary. I show that the sign of the asymptotic bias depends only on the signs of the bi-directional causal effects. JEL Codes: C10, C30.

Studies of the effect of government spending on unemployment are potentially confounded by reverse causality. To address the endogeneity problem, we exploit variation in a porkbarrel road-building program, and find that higher government expenditure on road-building substantially reduces local unemployment. JEL Codes: E24, E62, H30, H54,

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for real growth in the euro area through bivariate and multivariate non-parametric Granger causality tests. Apart from assessing the within-country forecasting ability of commonly-employed financial variables, such as the term spread, the stock market returns and the growth of real money supply, we also test for cross-country...

This study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and two macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and unemployment, in Sweden using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and Granger-causality within vector error correction model (VECM) based on annual data spanning the period between 1980 and 2004. Results of the ARDL bounds tes...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: O43 O16 E44 E31 Keywords: Banking sector Stock market Economic growth Granger causality ASEAN countries This paper examines the relationship between banking sector development, stock market development, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries for the period 1961–2012. Using principal component analysis for the construc...

The paper examines the effect of inflation on the growth rate in economies with underground, or ”non-market”, sectors. The model incorporates a non-market good into an endogenous growth cash-inadvance economy with human capital. Taxes on labor and capital induce substitution into the non-market sector which avoids such taxes. However the non-market sector uses only cash for exchange and cannot ...