Value at Risk is a measure of risk exposure of a portfolio and is de ned as the maximum possible loss in a certain time frame, typically 1-20 days, and within a certain con dence, typically 95%. Full valuation of a portfolio under a large number of scenarios is a lengthy process. To speed it up, one can make use of the total delta vector and the total gamma matrix of a portfolio and compute a G...

Higher levels of integration have led to a generation of integrated circuits for which power dissipation and reliability are major design concerns. In CMOS circuits, both of these problems are directly related to the extent of circuit switching activity. The average number of transitions per second at a circuit node is a measure of switching activity that has been called the transition density....

This TR discusses aspects of using ground control to validate the computational terrain reconstruction. Image features provided for stereo matching allow to deduce simple confidence measures for reconstructed terrains, and only sufficiently confident terrain points should be validated by the available control data. 1 CITR, Tamaki Campus, University Of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand Con dence o...

background: congenital heart disease (chd) is the most common congenital anomaly in newborns. this study was performed to determine the live birth incidence of chd by ethnicity and sex in gorgan, northern iran. methods: in this longitudinal, hospital-based study, 18162 live births in dezyani hospital in gorgan, north of iran, were screened for chd, from 2007 through 2009. clinical examination, ...

The labour economics literature on signalling assumes workers know their own abilities. Well-settled experimental evidence contradicts that assumption: in the absence of hard facts, subjects are on average overcon ̄dent. First we show that in any equilibrium of any signalling model, overcon ̄dence cannot make players better o®. In order to obtain more detailed predictions, we then introduce a spe...

Psychologists have consistently documented people’s tendency to be overconfident about their own ability. We interpret workers’ confidence in their own skills as their morale, and investigate the implication of worker overconfidence on the firm’s optimal wage-setting policies. In our model, a wage contract both provides incentives and conveys to the worker the firm’s opinion about her ability, ...

Consumers may overestimate the precision of their demand forecasts. This overcon…dence creates an incentive for both monopolists and competitive …rms to o¤er tari¤s with included quantities at zero marginal cost, followed by steep marginal charges. This matches observed cellphone service pricing plans in the US and elsewhere. An alternative explanation with common priors can be ruled out in fav...

This paper proposes a new way to construct con…dence sets for a parameter of interest in models comprised of …nitely many moment inequalities. Building on results from the literature on multivariate one-sided tests, I show how to test the hypothesis that any particular parameter value is logically consistent with the maintained moment inequalities. The associated test statistic has an asymptoti...

We argue that individual characteristics of managers can explain capital structure decisions like debt conservatism and pecking-order …nancing choices. Moreover, they can explain cross-sectional variation in these decisions despite identical …rm characteristics. We link the reluctance of (some) managers to access external capital markets, and in particular equity markets, to managerial overcon…...