Neural networks are investigated for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the following month based on the analysis of eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators are selected based on the Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic earthquake magnitude distribution and also on the conclusions drawn by recent earthquake prediction studies...

Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the w...

5 [1] Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial‐temporal point process 6 models such as the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). 7 Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for 8 earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically 9 removed prior to fitting a point process mode...

[1] The Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake has reopened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of earthquake early warning for large events. A well-known problem with real-time procedures is the parameter saturation, which may lead to magnitude underestimation for large earthquakes. Here we measure the initial peak ground displacement and the predominant period by...

[1] We assessed the accuracy of earthquake source parameters inverted from simulated Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. Using focal mechanisms of Australian earthquakes (1959 to the present), we simulated synthetic two-pass InSAR observations with realistic spatial noise derived from the characteristics of actual ERS-2 and ENVISAT InSAR data observed over Australia. The prec...

The hypothesis that earthquake foreshocks have a prognostic value is challenged by simulations of the normal behaviour of seismicity, where no distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks can be made. In the former view, foreshocks are passive tracers of a tectonic preparatory process that yields the mainshock (i.e., loading by aseismic slip) while in the latter, a foreshock is an...

During the 2011 magnitude 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, very large slip occurred on the shallowest part of the subduction megathrust. Quantitative information on the shallow slip is of critical importance to distinguishing between different rupture mechanics and understanding the generation of the ensuing devastating tsunami. However, the magnitude and distribution of the shallow slip are essentiall...

For decades seismologists have sought causal relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones, with the underlying notion that some subduction zones may never produce a magnitude ~9 or larger event. The 2004 Andaman Mw 9.2 earthquake called into question such ideas. Given multicentury return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return time...

This paper reviews issues, models, and methodologies arising out of the problems of predicting earthquakes and forecasting earthquake risk. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within specified time, space, and magnitude windows. One recurring theme is that such probabilities are best developed from models which specify a ti...

Earthquake prediction is considered impossible for there no scientific way to find the date and time, location, magnitude of an earthquake. A new idea introduced in this paper—earth rotation harmonics triggered natural volcano With earth response model a it could be possible calculate earthquake magnitude. Properties are discussed verified with data from USGS website. Also, both tide ocean effe...