We present a model of optimal intervention in a flight to quality episode. The reason for intervention stems from a collective bias in agents' expectations. Agents in the model make risk management decisions with incomplete knowledge. They understand their own shocks, but are uncertain of how correlated their shocks are with systemwide shocks, treating the latter uncertainty as Knightian. We sh...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be...

This article develops a framework that combines the economics behind the structural modeling of sovereign credit risk, corporate capital structure, and the equilibrium modeling of international asset pricing. The default decisions of the sovereign and the firm are derived optimally and embedded in a two-country, two-good consumption-based asset-pricing model with a representative risk-averse ag...

In a sovereign debt model with endogenous default, I add uncertainty about the long-run prospects of the emerging country to account for the high spreads and relatively frequent default episodes observed in these countries. The existing literature cannot account for the business cycle moments of the spreads: the spreads are generally too low and when they are increased through some adjustments ...

This paper investigates Japanese banks' earnings management behavior under three distinct economic environments: (1) highgrowth with asset price bubble economy (1985–1990); (2) stagnant growth with financial distress economy (1991–1996); and (3) severe recession with credit crunch economy (1997–1999). Using bank balance sheet information of 78 Japanese banks, we find that earnings management be...

The paper explores the insights offered by Marx’s analysis of the emergence of “world money” into the workings of the international gold standard period and the post-Bretton Woods floating dollar standard. In a curious inversion of the traditional formulations drawing on Lenin, imperial hegemony in today’s context would seem to be associated with net capital imports (rather than exports) by the...

OBJECTIVE Chronic viral hepatitis B and C cause liver fibrosis, leading to cirrhosis. Fibrosis assessment is essential to establish prognosis and treatment indication. We compared seven non-invasive tests, separately and in combination, in chronic hepatitis patients to detect early stages of fibrosis according to the Metavir score in liver biopsy. MATERIAL AND METHODS Galactose and methacetin...

This paper presents a principal-agent model of IMF conditional lending, in the aftermath of a “capital-account” liquidity crisis. We show that traditional ex-post conditionality can be e¤ective in safeguarding the Fund’s resources, allowing for the provision of e¢cient emergency lending and reducing ine¢cient ex-ante credit rationing if the capital out‡ow which triggers the crisis is not excess...

In a model with both issues of sovereign debtor moral hazard and creditor coordination under incomplete information, we show that the resulting con‡ict between ex ante and interim e¢ ciency limits the welfare impact of strengthening CACs. Conditional on default, we show that an interim e¢ cient CAC threshold exists and improving creditor coordination results in welfare gains. However, when ex a...

Since 2007, three actors have been particularly important in U.S. Treasury auctions: The U.S. government, issuing $8.4 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2010 alone; foreign official entities, purchasing $398 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2010 alone; and finally the Federal Reserve, which intervened in the U.S. Treasury market by purchasing $900 billion U.S. Treasury securities du...