We propose a generalization of the Shirakawa (1991) model to capture the jump component in fixed income markets. The model is formulated under the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework, and allows the presence of a Wiener noise and a finite number of Poisson noises, each associated with a time deterministic volatility function. We derive the evolution of the futures price and use this evolu...

Article history: Received 7 May 2011 Received in revised form 3 November 2012 Accepted 16 January 2013 Available online 26 January 2013 We analyze how gender and age, internal characteristics of retail futures traders—one that remains fixed while the other changes over a lifetime—and the security being traded and bull– bear market conditions, two external factors, are related to the disposition...

The agricultural goods futures market has recently regained the interest of corporate business, research institutions, and governments. This renewed interest is brought about by the increasing volatility of the prices of agricultural raw materials. In turn, these reflect the shift that has taken place in the European Union’s joint agricultural policy: from price support to income support and to...

In this study we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California-Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium fo...

The estimation of the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the Brazilian futures markets is used to uncover the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, we find that external macroeconomic announcements dominate price changes in the Foreign Exchange and Ibovespa markets, while the impact of the domestic ones is ...

Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as “information markets,” “idea futures” or “event futures”, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting b...

This paper examines hedging effectiveness in Greek stock index futures market. We focus on various techniques to estimate variance reduction from constant and time-varying hedge ratios. For both available stock index futures contracts of the Athens Derivatives Exchange (ADEX), we employ a variety of models to derive and estimate the effectiveness of hedging. We measure hedging effectiveness usi...

This paper studies equilibrium in the futures market for a commodity in a single good economy, which is populated by heterogeneous producers and speculators. The commodity is traded only in the spot market at harvest whereas futures contracts written on the commodity are traded continuously. The model illustrates the role of heterogeneity and non-tradeness in a futures market equilibrium. The r...

This study evaluates the efficiency of cross hedging with single stock futures (SSF) contracts. We propose a new technique for hedging exposure to an individual stock that does not have options or exchange-traded SSF contracts written on it. Our method selects as a hedging instrument a portfolio of SSF contracts which are selected based on how closely matched their underlying firm characteristi...

Future contracts in commodity market with limited maturities are primarily used for hedging commodity price-fluctuation risks or for taking advantage of price movements, rather than for the buying or selling of the actual cash commodity. This paper is an effort to analyze the market efficiency of the Indian commodity market and volatility spillover effects between the spot and future market wit...