A time series is said to Granger cause another series if it has incremental predictive power when forecasting it. While Granger causality tests have been studied extensively in the univariate setting, much less is known for the multivariate case. In this paper we propose multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality. The performance of the out-of-sample tests is measured by a simulatio...

BACKGROUND Understanding circuit function would be greatly facilitated by methods that allow the simultaneous estimation of the functional strengths of all of the synapses in the network during ongoing network activity. Towards that end, we used Granger causality analysis on electrical recordings from the pyloric network of the crab Cancer borealis, a small rhythmic circuit with known connectiv...

as a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. on the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy cons...

This paper develops a two-sector growth model in which institutional investors play a significant role. A necessary and suffi cient condition is established under which these investors own the entire capital stock in the long run. The dependence of the long-run growth rate on the behaviour of such investors, and the effects of a productivity increase are analysed. JEL classification. O41, O43 A...

This paper focuses on the causality relation between US and the several Asia-pacific markets (Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Indonesia). We check the causality of the co-movement among the markets across Pacific by using Granger-Causality test, VAR, and event studying on unexpected high volatile period. Our tests show that U.S. and Japan have strong influence to other As...

Granger causality analysis is becoming central for the analysis of interactions between neural populations and oscillatory networks. However, it is currently unclear whether single-trial estimates of Granger causality spectra can be used reliably to assess directional influence. We addressed this issue by combining single-trial Granger causality spectra with statistical inference based on gener...

Causality discovery has been one of the core tasks in scientific research since the beginning of human scientific history. In the age of data tsunami, the task could involve millions of variables, which cannot be achieved feasibly by human. However, the causal discovery using artificial intelligence and statistical techniques in non-experimental settings faces several challenges. In this work, ...

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between volatility, volume and open interest in CSI 300 futures market using asymmetric GARCH model, Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response function based on 1-min data. ARMA-EGARCH model is employed and find that both contemporaneous and lagged volume is positively related to volatility, and current open interest has...

In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the dynamic complexity of individual processes at different time scales are well established, multiscale analysis of directed interactions has never been formaliz...