The present study has made an attempt to discuss the effects of exchange rate volatility and price expectation on maize imports in Iran from 1980 to 2013. In doing so, using the EGARCH technique for time series econometrics, price volatility variables for both exchange rate and final price have been calculated, and the time series for these variables have been extracted. Additionally, in regard...

just like any other economic field, housing market has two basic foundations which are demand and supply. its obvious that disequilibrum between these foundations, will drasticaly affect the housing affordability and can also lead to wide slump in many markets. that’s why, policy makers usually intend to stimulat the supply by means of providing low intrest loans, low priced land, etc. in this ...

Recent work on trend-cycle decompositions for US real GDP yields the following puzzling features: methods based on Unobserved Components models, the BeveridgeNelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and others yield very different cycles which bear little resemblance to the NBER chronology, ascribes much movements to the trend leaving little to the cycle, and some imply a negative corr...

THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION rate is defined as the percentage of the noninstitutional working-age population (those aged 16 and over) reporting themselves as either working or actively looking for work. This statistic is constructed from data collected as part of the Current Population Survey and published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Its longer-run trend is an important d...

This paper deals with the size of the random walk property of Colombia ́s output in two periods 1925-1994 and 1950-1994. GDP and GDPPC were both found to be integrated of order one a result which is very well known. The sequences are highly persistent, specially in the period 19501994. The forecast error when an innovation of 1 percent enters into the economy is about 1.5 percent in the very lon...

Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires spec...

Two important problems in the X-11 seasonal adjustment methodology are the construction of standard errors and the handling of the boundaries. We adapt the “implied model approach” of Kaiser and Maravall to achieve both objectives in a nonparametric fashion. The frequency response function of an X-11 linear filter is used, together with the periodogram of the differenced data, to define spectra...

Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2...

It is often unclear whether time series displaying substantial persistence should be modelled as a vector autoregression in levels (perhaps with a trend term) or in differences. The impact of this decision on inference is examined here using Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the size and power of variable inclusion (Granger causality) tests and the coverage of impulse response function con...