An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an informationprocessing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central banks use forecasting models based ...

Faced with real and nominal shocks, what should a benevolent central bank do, fix the money growth rate or target the inflation rate? In this paper, we make a first attempt at studying the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a micro-founded model of money. Specifically, we produce an overlapping generations economy in which limited communication and stochastic relocation creates an...

We analyze the differential growth effects of basic research, applied research, and embodied human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous education. In line with the empirical evidence, our model allows for i) a negative association between long-run economic growth and population growth, ii) a positive association between long-run economic gro...

â â â  â â â â  abstract â  as the chances of a successful conclusion to the doha round of trade liberalization under the wto become increasingly problematic, so the pace of negotiating local free trade agreements (ftas) is increasing. according to the wto report, countries in the asia-pacific region are “consolidating their drive towards regionalism at an accelerated pace”. after the trade...

high inflation has been as one of the characteristics of developing countries including iran and its economic and social impacts are extensive. compiling policies for economic development requires that inflation impacts on different social classes should be studied carefully. microeconomic analyses show that because of higher increase in price of goods that have higher share in consumption bund...

In many mainstream macroeconomic models, sticky prices play an important role in explaining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Various theories have been set forth to explain why prices are sticky. This study takes a firm-level survey approach, in a spirit similar to Blinder et al. (1998), to shed some light on the question of why prices are sticky. In particular, the Bank of Canada...

This paper estimates a reduced-form model of the Japanese economy that incorporates a role for money in the determination of GDP growth and inflation. Real base money growth is shown to be a significant determinant of GDP growth, suggesting a role for money even under a monetary policy operating regime in which base money is endogenous to the determination of an official interest rate. An aggre...

This paper combines a data-rich environment with machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors (“belief distortions”) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component their forecasts relative what can be learned from publicly avai...

â â â â â â â  this paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and gdp of the us, as the largest oil consumer, and the uk, as the oil producer. gmdh neural network and mlff neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast gdp responses to the oil price changes. the resul...