In this paper, we propose a stochastic investment model for actuarial use in South Africa by modelling price inflation rates, share dividends, long-term and short-term interest rates the period 1960–2018 inflation-linked bonds 2000–2018. Possible bi-directional relations between economic series have been considered, parameters their confidence intervals estimated recursively to examine stabilit...

Conceptually, inflation is best understood as on-going erosion of the purchasing power of money. Consumer price inflation is generally measured as changes in the weighted average of the money prices of a basket of selected goods and services. This raises questions concerning the choice of goods and services which constitute that basket, what sort of price changes should be counted as part of th...

We study a model with repeated moral hazard where financial contracts are not fully indexed to inflation because nominal prices are observed with delay, as in Jovanovic & Ueda (1997). More constrained firms sign contracts that are less indexed to inflation, and as a result, their investment is more sensitive to nominal price shocks. We also find that the overall degree of nominal indexation inc...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: E31 E44 E52 Keywords: Monetary policy rule Nonlinear model Stock market Structural break Time-varying coefficient This paper introduces nonlinearity and a structural break to the US forward-looking Taylor rule with a stock price gap, thereby alleviating the robustness problem that the linear Taylor rule is sensitive to minor changes of the sample period...

A supermartingale deflator (resp. local martingale deflator) multiplicatively transforms nonnegative wealth processes into supermartingales (resp. local martingales). A supermartingale numéraire (resp. local martingale numéraire) is a wealth process whose reciprocal is a supermartingale deflator (resp. local martingale deflator). It has been established in previous works that absence of arbitra...

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such as the HICP or wages inflation, are likely to be swamped by these external factors. This paper uses ...

today, the discussion of regularity monetary policy in achieving inflation and output gap stabilization is important. in this paper, we investigated the persistence of the output gap in iran economy and then by using a hybrid new keynesian model based on quarterly data for 1990:1- 2011:3. we compared three alternative instrumental rules in monetary policy for iran economy. the results indicated...

This paper estimates the effects of oil price changes on U.S. inflation in a Phillips curve framework, allowing for some of the asymmetries, nonlinearities, and structural breaks that have been found in the literature on the real effects of oil price shocks. It finds that since around 1980, oil price changes seem to affect inflation only through their direct share in a price index, with little ...

This paper proposes a theory of supply shocks, or shifts in the short-run Phillips curve, based on relative-price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment. When price adjustment is costly, firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks, and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level. Therefore, aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative-pric...