Since India gained independence from the British in 1947, they have made steady progress in economic growth and poverty reduction. There has been political unrest and tension with Pakistan. However, there have not been substantial shocks to the economy. The most recent crisis was in 1991, but was not a major crisis when compared to Asia or Mexico. GDP did not decline in 1991 or 1992. Despite th...

In the offered work two approaches to the problem of economic growth rate determining is considered. The first approach assumes, that economic growth rate is set exogenously, so its value is known while at the second approach economic growth rate is determined endogenously, i.e. its value is unknown. In the model there are included such components of the economic growth, which are determined by...

This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be $554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1–2020:4 (0.29 percent of the total sum of output). The average number of jobs...

We measure global real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty and analyze its impact on individual countries’ macroeconomic performance. Global uncertainty is measured through the conditional variances of global factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of global uncertainty is measured by including the conditional varia...

This paper examines whether recessions and booms are forecastable under the assumption that equity prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and random shocks are not. Each of the 214 eight-quarter periods within the overall 1954:1–2009:1 period is examined regarding predictions of output growth and in ation. The results for low output growth vary by recession— there is no common pattern....

a r t i c l e i n f o Firms in many developing countries cite macroeconomic instability and political uncertainty as major constraints to their growth. We conduct a randomized experiment in post-revolution Egypt to measure the impact of insuring microenterprises against this uncertainty. Demand for macroeconomic shock insurance was high, with a take-up rate of 36.7%. However, purchasing insuran...

â â â  â â â â â  the aim of this paper is to simulate the effects of some macroeconomic policy tools on production and inflation of iran by the current worldwide financial and real crisis. the theoretical framework of the analysis is based on the so-called ‘imf/world bank integrated model’ which is the synthesis (a merger) of the basic monetary approach of the balance of payments used at t...

We explore methods for confronting model misspeci cation in macroeconomics. We construct dynamic equilibria in which private agents and policy makers recognize that models are approximations. We explore two generalizations of rational expectations equilibria. In one of these equilibria, decision-makers use dynamic evolution equations that are imperfect statistical approximations, and in the oth...

Hidden in Aristotle’s Politics there is a macroeconomic model of the economy of the city-state. The elements of which this model in constructed are the following: the territorial size of the city, the division of the land between public and private, the size of the population and the Aristotelian notion of good life. The model describes the long-run equilibrium position of the economy of the ci...