I evaluate the welfare effects of exogenous changes in immigration policy by constructing a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model with agents differing in age, origin, and skills. Calibrating the model to Germany, I match the main features of the social security and tax systems, and account for differences in inter-generational transmission of skills and fertility between immigrants...

Interactions between Private and Public Sector Wages We examine the interactions between public and private sector wages per employee in OECD countries. The growth of public sector wages and of public sector employment positively affects the growth of private sector wages. Moreover, total factor productivity, the unemployment rate and the degree of urbanisation are also important determinants o...

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We select the transformation of the oil price of Lee, Ni and Ratti (1995), based on a linear analysis of the relationship between output growth and the oil pri...

In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substantially improves the fit of the real interest rate differential model and leads to parameter estimates, which in one regime are in line with theoretical exp...

This paper documents empirically that net firm entry robustly rises after a US government spending expansion. We use this new finding to test the empirical validity of various model features that have been put forward to generate a crowding-in of consumption after an expenditure shock. In particular, we show that models with endogenous entry can simultaneously generate an increase in consumptio...

The effects of a Tobin tax on foreign exchange markets have long been disputed. We present an experiment with currency trading on two markets, where either none, one, or both markets are taxed. Our results confirm the hitherto undisputed issues: a tax reduces trading volume, shifts market share to untaxed markets, and leads to negligible tax revenues if tax havens exist. Concerning the controve...

We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using variation in military and birth rates across US states, we show local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 increases with share of young people, implying 1.1–1.9 interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model credit market imperfections age-specific differences labor supply demand...

This paper develops a tractable dynamic term structure models under jump-diffusion and regime shifts with time varying transition probabilities. The model allows for regime-dependent jumps while both jump risk and regime-switching risk are priced. Closed form solution for the term structure is obtained for an affine-type model under loglinear approximation. JEL Classification: G12, E43, E52

This paper reviews and documents methodology for fitting hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of t...

Introductory Offers in a Model of Strategic Competition* We show how introductory offers emerge endogenously under conditions of competition in markets with switching costs. In a standard Hotelling model we find the combination of switching costs and introductory discounts to reduce industry profits relative to industries without switching costs, in which introductory offers do not emerge. Thus...