We outline a mechanism for eliciting probabilities using two uniform random numbers that is equivalent to the binarized scoring rule (BSR). Though our implementation is simple to describe and has a non-mathematical explanation, it retains the desirable theoretical features of the BSR. Moreover, we show that a discretized version with evenly-spaced reporting intervals can be implemented in the f...

OBJECTIVE The aim of the study reported here was to validate the risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity. METHODS The risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity developed earlier from two general hospitals in Thailand was validated using an independent dataset of scrub typhus patients in one of the hospitals from a few years later. The pred...

Toxicologically-based quantitative risk assessment is concerned with estimating human risks based upon experimental data linking an environmental agent to a known outcome (tumor incidence, acute toxicity, etc.). For dichotomous outcomes dose-response curves are modeled as complex functions of dose which often require specialized software to estimate. The SAS procedure NLMIXED readily allows for...

We derive and characterize a new mixed-risk distribution of the total number of Bernoulli outcomes (e.g, failures) for non-homogenous dichotomous events sampled from J non-identical binomial populations with different rates. The resultant distribution can be significantly non-binomial and non-normal, with corresponding consequences on probability calculations, control chart performance, and so ...

Credit scoring systems are currently in common use by numerous financial institutions worldwide. However, credit scoring with the microfinance industry is a relatively recent application, and no model which employs a non-parametric statistical technique has yet, to the best of our knowledge, been published. This lack is surprising since the implementation of credit scoring should contribute tow...