This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. In oil-dependent countries, a major issue is how to stabilize...

The present paper thoroughly explores second-best efficient allocations in an adverse selection insurance economy. We start from a natural extension of the classical model, assuming less than perfect risk perceptions. We propose first and second welfare theorems, by means of which we describe efficiencyenhancing policies. Notions of weak and strong adverse selection are promising for interpreti...

the paper examines for the first time the foreign exchange intervention policy in foreign exchange market of iran. and in this framework, the study designs and simulates the foreign exchange intervention model in iran. in the first section, the paper shows that the injection of oil revenues directly to economy and also the absence of potent structure of output are inclusively caused the central...

this paper focuses on the residential sector demand for electricity, natural gas and petroleum products (kerosene, gas oil and lpg) in iran in the context of a popular locally flexible functional forms - “the almost ideal demand system (aids)”. we pay explicit attention to the theoretical regularity conditions of positivity, monotonicity, and curvature. we treat the curvature property as a main...

In this paper we intend to examine the application of Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX loss function in Dynamic Linear Model using the real price of oil for 106 years of data from 1913 to 2018 concerning the asymmetric problem in filtering and forecasting. We use DLM form of the basic Hoteling Model under Quadratic loss function, Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX trying to address the ...

many reports that appeared during the last 20 years have shown that atmospheric pollution causes serious damage to human health and to environment. electricity generation from fuel fossil is one of the major sources of pollution and considerable share of this damage. the price of electricity in iran, as in many other countries also, includes only the production of private costs and ignores any ...

We introduce a novel approach to estimating latent oil risk factors and establish their significance in pricing non-oil securities. Our model, which features four factors with simple economic interpretations, is estimated using both derivative prices and oil-related equity returns. The fit is excellent in and out of sample. The extracted oil factors carry significant risk premia, and are signif...