A model with costly adjustment of production and costly inventories implies that wholesale gasoline prices will respond with a lag to crude oil cost shocks. Unlike explanations that rely upon menu costs, imperfect information, or long-term buyer/seller relationships, this model also predicts that futures prices for gasoline will adjust incompletely to crude oil price shocks that occur close to ...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

a r t i c l e i n f o Most CGE models are real and cannot be easily used to study monetary policies. This paper develops a financial CGE model with interaction between real and financial side of the Chinese economy and applies the model to study oil price shocks and monetary policy responses. Unlike macro models in the current literature, the financial CGE model can be implemented to look into ...

This paper explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventor...

Extant literature establishes co-movements among commodity (metal and oil) prices; whereas oil price/shocks aggregate, as a lone predictor, has relative predictability for most financial assets. We assess the of Baumeister Hamilton's (2019) decomposed shocks (economic activity shocks, consumption demand inventory supply shocks) conditional volatilities prominently traded precious metals (gold, ...

a r t i c l e i n f o A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural s...

WHEN THE U.S. INVADED Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful U.S. economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. Real oil prices did increase, indeed more than tripled, from $20 in 2001:Q4 to $62 in 2006:Q3 (in 2007 dollars). But the ailments associated w...

This paper constructs a macro-finance model for commodity futures. I document a feedback relationship between crude oil prices and real economic activity. The channel from real activity to oil prices is unspanned – meaning not identified in current futures prices – consistent with oil futures as a hedge asset against supply shocks. Unspanned macroeconomic risks have first order effects on risk ...