Theoretical models have been used to argue that seasonal mean monsoons will shift abruptly and discontinuously from wet to dry stable states as their radiative forcings pass a critical threshold, sometimes referred to as a "tipping point." Further support for a strongly nonlinear response of monsoons to radiative forcings is found in the seasonal onset of the South Asian summer monsoon, which i...

The timing of the development of the East Asian monsoon in the geologic past is critically important for paleoclimatological studies, yet few quantitative data are available. Based on palynomorphs from six formations, supplemented by leaf fossils from one of these formations in Fushun, northeastern China, we present a quantitative estimate of the evolution of precipitation in this area during t...

Understanding the physical processes responsible for aerosol– monsoon water cycle interactions is fundamental to improving prediction and enhancing vigilance of climatic hazards in the Asian monsoon region. A ir pollution and monsoon floods and droughts are two of the most serious environmental threats to over 60% of the world population living in Asia. The increasing aerosol loading in Asian c...

When floods ravage Asian monsoon regions in summer, megadroughts often attack extratropical North America, which feature an intercontinental contrasting precipitation anomaly between Asia and North America. However, the characteristics of the contrasting Asian-North American (CANA) precipitation anomalies and associated mechanisms have not been investigated specifically. In this article, we fir...

The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere rela...

Abstract Understanding the physical mechanisms behind secular trends of summer rainfall extremes over heavily populated Southeast and East Asian monsoon regions is not only scientific importance but also considerable socioeconomic implications. In this study, relevance excessive-rain-producing low pressure systems (LPSs) to extreme quantified. Using an objective feature-tracking algorithm, syno...

Two PMIP3/CMIP5 climate model ensemble simulations of the past millennium have been analysed to identify the occurrence of Asian mega-droughts. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is used as the key metric for the data comparison of hydro-climatological conditions. The model results are compared with the proxy data of the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Our study shows that global circu...

The Asian summer monsoon is organized into distinct convection centers, but the mechanism for this organization is not well understood. Analysis of new satellite observations reveals that narrow mountain ranges are an important organizing agent anchoring monsoon convection centers on the windward side. The Bay of Bengal convection, in particular, features the heaviest precipitation on its easte...

JULY 2004 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | T he key mission of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) is to understand water and energy cycles, document their physical processes, and simulate and predict water and energy fluxes. This involves a synergetic strategy integrating satellite data, in situ observations, assimilated data, and modeling simulations. A CEOP Monsoon Systems Work...