conclusions addressing and removing explainable patterns of syndromic data on meningitis is necessary to timely and accurately detection of meningitis epidemics. it was concluded that decomposition methods had better performance compared to the model based ones. background meningitis is one of the most disturbing infectious diseases due to mortality, morbidity and its ability to cause epidemic....

This study considers variance estimation when estimating the asymptotic variance of a propensity score matching estimator for the average treatment effect. We investigate the role of smoothing parameters in a variance estimator based on matching. We also study the properties of estimators using local linear estimation. Simulations demonstrate that large gains can be made in terms of mean square...

Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...

In this paper, two smoothing effects are firstly pointed out by analysis and by experiment on Traveling Salesman Problem(TSP) instances. We design a novel algorithm which runs stochastic local search under the SSS framework. The function determining the accepting probability of uphill moves is designed so that the algorithm can take advantage of the local smoothing effect ignored in original SS...

Introduction: Many DTI studies are starting to use voxel based analysis (VBA) to evaluate differences in the diffusion properties between healthy diseased subjects. Despite the intuitively appealing approach of analyzing diffusion measures at each voxel, VBA results should be interpreted cautiously, since they depend on the applied parameter settings. Since, for example, in the VBA literature o...

In this paper, a two-product and two-echelon supply chain is considered in order to quantify the bullwhip effect. Demands of the products are correlated and are represented by a first order vector autoregressive model. Retailer uses “order up to” ordering policy for replenishment of stocks and utilizes exponential smoothing forecast method to predict demand in lead-time period. According to the...

Abstract. Computing the optimal pacing strategy for cycling time trials can be formulated as an optimal control problem, where a mechanical model and a physiological endurance model form the dynamical system and time to complete the track is to be minimized. We review approaches that use the 3-parameter critical power model to compute optimal pacing strategies and modify it to become a smooth 6...

We have developed a modified form of the equations of smoothed particle magnetohydrodynamics which are stable in the presence of very steep density gradients. Using this formalism, we have performed simulations of the collapse of magnetised molecular cloud cores to form protostars and drive outflows. Our stable formalism allows for smaller sink particles (< 5 AU) than used previously and the in...