This paper asks how well a general equilibrium agency cost model describes the dynamic relationship between credit variables and the business cycle. A Bayesian VAR is used to obtain probability intervals for empirical correlations. The agency cost model is found to predict the leading, countercyclical correlation of spreads with output when shocks arising from the credit market contribute to ou...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined st...

PfEMP1 are variant parasite antigens that are inserted on the surface of infected erythrocytes (IE). Through interactions with Plasmodium falciparum various host molecules, PfEMP1 mediate IE sequestration in tissues and play a key role in the pathology of severe malaria. PfEMP1 is encoded by a diverse multi-gene family called . Previous studies have shown that that expression var of specific s...

This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...

Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor index or Jensen’s alpha, based on the mean-variance framework, are widely used to rank mutual funds. However, performance measures that consider risk by taking into account only losses, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), would be more appropriate. Standard VaR assumes that returns are normally distributed, though th...

The present paper thoroughly explores second-best efficient allocations in an adverse selection insurance economy. We start from a natural extension of the classical model, assuming less than perfect risk perceptions. We propose first and second welfare theorems, by means of which we describe efficiencyenhancing policies. Notions of weak and strong adverse selection are promising for interpreti...

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial, interval forecast and distribution forecast methods. Given the low power often exhibited by their correspond...

I analyze the effect of monetary policy actions on the cross-section of equity returns. Based on earlier theoretical work for the monetary transmission mechanism one can argue that changes in monetary policy should produce differentiated effects on firms and stocks with different characteristics. By using different portfolio sorts the results show that the impact of monthly changes in the Feder...

A Bayesian Analysis of a Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns We apply Bayesian methods to study a common VAR-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy which involves expressing beliefs about the components...

This paper proposes dynamic copula and marginals functions to model the joint distribution of risk factor returns affecting portfolios profit and loss distribution over a specified holding period. By using copulas, we can separate the marginal distributions from the dependence structure and estimate portfolio Value-at-Risk, assuming for the risk factors a multivariate distribution that can be d...