We study a large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Model where: (i) the vector of factors F t is I ( 1 ) and driven by number shocks that smaller than dimension ; and, (ii) idiosyncratic components are either or 0 . Under (i), cointegrated can be modeled as Vector Error Correction (VECM). (ii), we provide consistent estimators, both cross-sectional size n time T go to infinity, for factors, loadings, ...

This research aimed to determine the simultaneous and partial impact before during occurrence of COVID-19 on movement rupiah exchange rates Joint Stock Price Index (IHSG), both in long short term. A descriptive quantitative approach was used while data were collected through documentation. Moreover, analytical method Paired Sample t-test Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicat...

With the development of Shanghai's social economy and continuous transformation three major industries, energy structure will also undergo corresponding changes. In order to study proportion electricity in consumption future, this paper predicts electric non-electric Shanghai based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), analyses impulse response analysis variance. The result experiment shows ...

Penelitian ini dilakukan guna menganalisis mengenai pengaruh inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dan kurs bagi impor Indonesia. Variabel dependen yang dipakai yakni impor, sementara variabel independen berupa PDB kurs. memakai data time series tahunan dari tahun 1985 sampai 2020 berasal Badan Pusat Statistik. Alat estimasi pada penelitian yaitu Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Estimasi me...

The inflow of foreign remittances in Pakistan has been an important source of foreign exchange in Pakistan while economy of Pakistan being a consumption oriented society /economy makes it interesting to explore the nexus between foreign remittances and inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose, the present study attempts to examine the impact of foreign remittances on inflation in Pakistan coveri...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

This study considers the forecasting of mortality rates in multiple populations. We propose a model that combines mortality forecasting and functional data analysis (FDA). Under the FDA framework, the mortality curve of each year is assumed to be a smooth function of age. As with most of the functional time series forecasting models, we rely on functional principal component analysis (FPCA) for...

Economists are often tasked with estimating the benefits or costs associated with livestock production losses; however, lack of available data or absence of consistent reporting can reduce the accuracy of these valuations. This work looks at three potential estimation techniques for determining the value for replacement beef cows with varying types of market data to proxy constrained data avail...

In the presence of generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) in the residuals of a vector error correction model (VECM), maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the cointegration parameters has been shown to be efficient. On the other hand, full ML estimation of VECMs with GARCH residuals is computationally difficult and may not be feasible for larger models. Moreover, ML estimation of V...