estimation of agricultural sector demand and supply and identification of its determinants could lead to more efficient policies and planning of this section. in this study, aggregate demand and supply of agriculture sector for years of 1959-2007 by using of nonlinear restricted armax model are estimated. result indicates that aggregate agriculture demand is inelastic in short and long run. tho...

• Traditional approaches, including Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive and moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, exponential smoothing models [including Holt–Winters model (HW) and seasonal Holt and Winters’ linear exponential smoothing (SHW)], state space/Kalman fi...

In this paper we propose a technique for modelling the temperature of the rooms of a smart building for control purposes. The approach consists in determining an (black-box) ARMAX model based on the first-principle thermodynamics equations of the system. Then, the model parameters are estimated by initially employing an ad hoc procedure and then by using a self-calibration method when the perfo...

A review and categorization of electric load forecasting techniques is presented. A wide range of methodologies and models for forecasting are given in the literature. These techniques are classi®ed here into nine categories: (1) multiple regression, (2) exponential smoothing, (3) iterative reweighted least-squares, (4) adaptive load forecasting, (5) stochastic time series, (6) ARMAX models bas...

Residual tests for sufficient model orders are based on the assumption that prediction errors are white when the model is correct. If an ARMAX system has zeros in the MA part which are close to the unit circle, then the standard predictor can have large transients. Even when the correct model is used there will be large correlations in the transient phase. In this case the standard residual tes...