This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I …nd that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural credit increasing by 5-10 percentage points in an election year. There is signi…cant cross-sectional targeting, with large increas...

Recursive Partitioning Algorithm (RPA) is introduced as a technique for credit scoring analysis, which allows direct incorporation of misclassification costs. This study corroborates nonagricultural credit studies, which indicate that RPA outperforms logistic regression based on within-sample observations, However, validation based on more appropriate outof-sample observations indicates that lo...