We illustrate the corrosive e¤ect of even small amounts of adverse selection in an asset market and how it can lead to the total breakdown of trade. The problem is the failure of “market con…dence”, de…ned as approximate common knowledge of an upper bound on expected losses. Small probability events can unravel market con…dence. We discuss the role of contagious adverse selection and the proble...

In this paper incremental discovery of sequential patterns from a large sequence database is studied A sequential pattern has the form where and are subsequences in the database which says that events will be followed by events with some minimum support and con dence We consider the scenario that sequential patterns have previously been discovered and materialized and an update is subsequently ...

Often when comparing the survival rates of individuals given either of two treatments the analysis stops with a test of the hypothesis of no treatment di erence and perhaps a plot of the two survival functions. The hypothesis test is usually a comparison of the two survival curves over the entire observational period. An alternative approach to this problem is to provide an investigator with a ...

�e �rst review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. A�erward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and con�dence level. In particular, we establish the uniform controllability of coverage probability and the asymptotic optimality for such a family of sampling schemes. Our th...

We give a method for determining a set of images which are consistent with measured projections data and error bounds on the projections noise The error bounds can account for both statistical noise uncertainty and model uncertainty e g due to a mismodeled or un calibrated system matrix If one knows the statistical distribution of the projections errors then one can se lect the error bounds to ...

This document provides guidance to users of the computer program RECIPE (REGression Con dence Intervals on PErcentiles). This program can provide approximate one-sided tolerance limits (or, equivalently, con dence intervals on percentiles) for a wide range of situations where one is able to assume a normal probability model. Arbitrary regression models with or without a random e ect can be anal...

This paper proposes an improved method of summarizing speech in which a con dence measure of a word hypothesis is incorporated in the summarization score and also proposes a new method for evaluating the summarized sentences. The automatically summarized sentences were evaluated based on the precision of extracted keywords and each word string with a certain length in the manual summarizations ...

We propose a novel approach which combines the use of Bayesian network and probabilistic association rules to discover and explain anomalies in data. The Bayesian network allows us to organize information in order to capture both correlation and causality in the feature space, while the probabilistic association rules have a structure similar to association mining rules. In particular, we focus...

This paper is concerned with tests and con…dence intervals for parameters that are not necessarily identi…ed and are de…ned by moment inequalities. In the literature, di¤erent test statistics, critical value methods, and implementation methods (i.e., the asymptotic distribution versus the bootstrap) have been proposed. In this paper, we compare these methods. We provide a recommended test stati...