Resampling the innovations sequence of state space models has proved to be a useful tool in many respects. For example, while under general conditions, the Gaussian MLEs of the parameters of a state space model are asymptotically normal, several researchers have found that samples must be fairly large before asymptotic results are applicable. Moreover, problems occur if the any of parameters ar...

In management and planning it is a daily reality that more and more information is available gradually over time. It is well known that most risk measures (risk functionals) are time inconsistent in this situation in the following sense: it may happen that today some loss distribution appears to be less risky than another, but looking at the conditional distribution at a later time, the opposit...

The case-crossover design is useful for studying the effects of transient exposures on short-term risk of diseases or injuries when only data on cases are available. The crossover nature of this design allows each subject to serve as his/her own control. While the original design was proposed for univariate event data, in many applications recurrent events are encountered (e.g. elderly falls, g...

this paper employs a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation garch model, which is developed by engle (2001, 2002), to detect the timing and nature of changes in the comovement between iranian output and prices for the periods after iran–iraq war , known as imposed war . the results showed that there is a weak correlation between output and prices after imposed war and  varies periodically...

We study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood is maximized but the assumption of normality is violated. Because the score of the normal log-likelihood has the martingale difference property when the first two conditional m...

For a conditional expectation E on a (unital) C*-algebra A there exists a real number K ≥ 1 such that the mapping K · E − idA is positive if and only if there exists a real number L ≥ 1 such that the mapping L ·E − idA is completely positive, among other equivalent conditions. The estimate (min K) ≤ (min L) ≤ (min K)[min K] is valid, where [·] denotes the integer part of a real number. As a con...

In conventional random-utility models, such as the multinomial logit model, it is assumed that a decisionmaker's choice set is independent of his or her preferences conditional on the explanatory variables of the models. However, there are many situations in which the decisionmaker chooses the choice set, thereby making the independence assumption implausible. For example, if information about ...

Standard Gaussian graphical models implicitly assume that the conditional independence among variables is common to all observations in the sample. However, in practice, observations are usually collected from heterogeneous populations where such an assumption is not satisfied, leading in turn to nonlinear relationships among variables. To address such situations we explore mixtures of Gaussian...

Dynamic models extend state space models to non-normal observations. This paper suggests a speci®c hybrid Metropolis±Hastings algorithm as a simple device for Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo in dynamic models. Hastings proposals from the (conditional) prior distribution of the unknown, time-varying parameters are used to update the corresponding full conditional distributions. I...