Transport projects are regularly subjected to cost misperformance. The contingency set aside cover any increases in due risk and uncertainty issues is often insufficient. We review approaches that have been used estimate a contingency. show some such as reference class forecasting, which underpins the planning fallacy theory, take biased view formulate Indeed, there perception risks uncertainti...

The deployment of the Primary Casualty Receiving Facility (PCRF) to Sierra Leone in October 2014 in support of Operation GRITROCK was a contingency operation that required a very specific training programme. This article discusses the training and how it evolved beyond its original remit into a programme used as a management tool to meet the needs of the staff. The result was the implementation...

This paper describes a stochastic “Random Chemistry” (RC) algorithm to identify multiple (n− k) contingencies that initiate large cascading failures in a simulated power system. The method requires only O(log(n)) simulations per contingency identified, which is orders of magnitude faster than random search of this combinatorial space. We applied the method to a model of cascading failure in a p...

This paper summarizes the results of a reliability assessment conducted by Northeast Power Coordinating Council’s (NPCC) Regional Planning Forum (RPF). The RPF’s goal is to explore innovative approaches to reliably enhancing the capabilities of the transmission grid from a Wide-Area, Trans-Regional outlook. Scenarios of Canadian to United States transfers, New England to the Mid-Atlantic Area C...

Contingency analysis is a critical activity in the context of the power infrastructure, because it provides a guide for resiliency and enables the grid to continue operating even in the case of failure. A critical issue with the current evolution of the power grid into a so-called smart grid is the introduction of cyber-security threats due to the pervasive deployment of communication networks ...

Commitments play a central role in multi-agent coordination. However, they are inherently uncertain and it is important to take these uncertainties into account during planning and scheduling. This paper addresses the problem of handling the uncertainty in commitments. We propose a new model of commitment that incorporates the uncertainty, the use of contingency analysis to reduce the uncertain...