In a self-confirming equilibrium, each player correctly forecasts the actions that opponents will take along the equilibrium path, but may be mistaken about the way that opponents would respond to deviations. This paper develops a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium in which players use information about opponents’ payoffs in forming beliefs about the way that opponents play off of the eq...

This paper argues that recently popular forecast-based instrument rules for monetary policy may fail to stabilize economic ‡uctuations. In a New Keynesian model of output gap and in‡ation determination in which private agents face multi-period decision problems, but have non-rational expectations and learn over time, if the monetary authority adopts a forecast-based instrument rule and responds...

In a self-confirming equilibrium, each player correctly forecasts the actions that opponents will take along the equilibrium path, but may be mistaken about the way that opponents would respond to deviations. This paper develops a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium in which players use information about opponents’ payoffs in forming beliefs about the way that opponents play off of the eq...

We study a simple monetary model in which a central bank faces a boundedly rational private sector and has the goal of stabilizing inflation. The system’s dynamics is generated by the interaction of the expectations about inflation of the various agents involved. A modest degree of heterogeneity in such expectations is found to have interesting consequences, in particular when the central bank ...

Recently, investment in high technology companies boomed as people invested large sums of money even when there was little chance of the company being profitable. This is contrary to classical beliefs that investors have rational expectations and maximise their utility. Instead we must consider the idea that people are irrational and make decisions for many reasons, few of which involve a judic...

An experiment tested whether and in what circumstances people are more likely to believe an event simply because it makes them better off. Subjects observed a financial asset's historical price chart, and received both an accuracy bonus for predicting the price at some future point, and an unconditional award that was either increasing or decreasing in this price. Despite incentives for hedging...

BACKGROUND Therapeutic vaccination is a promising novel approach to treat HIV-1 infected people by boosting or redirecting immune system to neutralize critical HIV-1 antigens whose biological effects are relevant in the context of viral pathogenesis. With the aim to induce neutralizing antibodies to the matrix protein p17 we have developed a peptide-based immunogen (AT20-KLH) and evaluated its ...

PURPOSE Comparison of efficacy and safety of 0.2% and 0.18% hyaluronic acid (HA) eye drops three times a day (tid) in patients with moderate to severe dry eye disease, related to keratitis or keratoconjunctivitis. PATIENTS AND METHODS Prospective, multicenter, randomized, single-masked, phase IIIb, noninferiority study (0.2% HA vs 0.18% HA) in two parallel groups over a period of 84 days. N=7...

BACKGROUND Rice dwarf virus (RDV) is the causal agent of rice dwarf disease, which often results in severe yield losses of rice in East Asian countries. The disease symptoms are stunted growth, chlorotic specks on leaves, and delayed and incomplete panicle exsertion. Three RDV strains, O, D84, and S, were reported. RDV-S causes the most severe symptoms, whereas RDV-O causes the mildest. Twenty ...