This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Growth-indexed bonds have been suggested as a way of reducing...

Emerging market economies are fertile ground for the development of real estate and other financial bubbles. Despite these economies’ significant growth potential, their corporate and government sectors do not generate the financial instruments to provide residents with adequate stores of value. Capital often flows out of these economies seeking these stores of value in the developed world. Bub...

This paper provides a comparative assessment of the e¤ectiveness of macroprudential policies in 12 Asia-Paci…c economies, using comprehensive databases of domestic macroprudential policies and capital ‡ow management (CFM) policies. We …nd that banking sector CFM polices and bond market CFM policies are effective in slowing down banking in‡ows and bond in‡ows, respectively. We also …nd some evid...

A financial union is a group of countries, each with its own nontradable goods sector, which can freely exchange tradable goods and debt contracts. In this paper, we establish the effects of shocks in a stylized financial union with heterogeneous regions– a lender North and a borrower South– and constraints on borrowing. We derive positive and normative results. First, when the degree of hetero...

Sovereign default in emerging countries is accompanied by interest rates spikes, deep recessions, and sharp real exchange rate devaluations. This paper develops a two sector small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption and real exchange rates. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium...

Three channels through which the IMF rescue package may affect international lending can be distinguished: debtor-side moral hazard, creditor-side moral hazard, and debtor and creditorsidemoral hazard.We show that if the rescue package fully benefits the debtor, no credit contract between him and the creditor arises. The other two kinds of moral hazard, where the creditor receives the rescue pa...

In this paper, I develop a theoretical model to analyze the optimal choice between bank loans and bond finance for a sovereign debtor. The model describes a market that is subject to moral hazard and adverse selection. I model the choice between the two debt instruments allowing for debt renegotiation in the event of financial distress, with the possibility of default. The model incorporates pr...

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor’s from 1995-2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framew...

OBJECTIVE Depression is a major cause of disability in working populations and the reduction of socioeconomic inequalities in disability is an important public health challenge. We examined work disability due to depression with four indicators of socioeconomic status. METHODS A prospective cohort study of 125 355 Finnish public sector employees was linked to national register data on work di...

This paper presents a model in which a high growth economy becomes susceptible to a sudden financial crisis. In the model firms are motivated to over-invest because of government subsidies and then bear the burden of the inefficiencies caused by the government distortion. We assume that the firms compensate for their losses by obtaining bank loans and domestic banks will continuously lend money...