Accurate forecast of water demand is one of the main problems in developing management strategy for the optimal control of water supply system. In this paper, a hybrid model which combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and least square support vector machine (LSSVM) model is proposed to forecast water demand. This hybrid is formulated specifically to address in modelling water demand that ...

The effect of a "pore-size" length-scale parameter 1 on compaction of grounds with fluid inclusions is studied. They are modelled as continua endowed with micro-structure by means of the macro-modelling procedure proposed in [2]. We show the dependence of field evolution equations on the micro-structure parameter l and compare our model with the homogenized asymptotic ones. The consideration of...

This paper is about income and poverty dynamics and their socioeconomic correlates. The first half of the paper aims to establish some of the salient facts for Britain, applying the pioneering methods of Bane and Ellwood (1986). Important for poverty dynamics are changes in labour earnings from persons other than the household head, changes in non-labour income (including benefits), and changes...

In this paper, virtual test technology of automatic weapon is studied based on the dynamic simulation platform-ADAMS. A systemic suit of project for modelling and simulation is provided including the computation of the interior ballistics and random ballistics simulation for the generation of work load, the simulation control method of single fire and repeating fire using parametric design, sen...

This paper deals with human-machine conflicts with a special focus on conflicts caused by an “automation surprise”. Considering both the human operator and the machine autopilot or decision functions as agents, we propose Petri net based models of two real cases and we show how modelling each agent’s possible actions is likely to highlight conflict states as deadlocks in the Petri net. A genera...

In this paper the approach to the software project dynamics research and optimisation is presented. This approach is based on the Measurement, Modelling and Management of the software development process (the MMM approach). We propose to collect the statistics data of such software project parameters as software product size, requirements size, effort, duration, staff number, costs, etc. in ord...

This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Pesaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors' search in `real time' for a model that can forecast stock returns. We ®nd evidence of predictability in UK stock returns which could have been exploited by investors to improve on the ris...

We propose and evaluate several new scoring rules based on likelihood ratios, for comparing forecast densities in the context of VaR modelling and expected loss estimation. Our approach is motivated by the observation that existing scoring rules tend to favour fat-tailed models when compared with thin-tailed models. Rather than restricting the weight functions, we impose some restrictions on th...

We propose a method to compute tsunami runup heights that is based on an integration of numerical, 2-D shallow-water modelling and an analytical, 1-D long-wave runup theory. This approach provides a faster forecast of tsunami runup heights than a complicated coastal inundation model. Through simulations of potential tsunami scenarios, this approach can also be applied to long-term tsunami predi...

In this report, we discuss results of modelling and forecasting nonstationary financial time series using a combination of the maximal overlap discreet wavelet transform (MODWT) and fuzzy logic. A financial time series is decomposed into an over complete, shift invariant wavelet representation. A fuzzy-rule base is created for each individual wavelet sub-series to predict future values. To form...