نتایج جستجو برای: garch model

تعداد نتایج: 2106339  

2011
Mahmoud Gabr Mahmoud El-Hashash

In this paper the class of BL-GARCH (Bilinear General AutoregRessive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models is introduced. The proposed model is a modification to the BL-GARCH model proposed by Storti and Vitale (2003). Stationary conditions and autocorrelation structure for special cases of these new models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model is also considered. Some simula...

2011
Zheng-Feng Guo Lingyan Cao

This paper develops a smooth transition GARCH model with an asymmetric transition function, which allows for an asymmetric response of volatility to the size and sign of shocks, and an asymmetric transition dynamics for positive and negative shocks. We apply our model to the empirical financial data: the NASDAQ index and the individual stock IBM daily returns. The empirical evidence shows that ...

1999
Franc Klaassen Frank de Jong Harry Huizinga Theo Nijman

We analyze the time-dependence of exchange rate correlations using a new multivariate GARCH model. This model consists of two parts. First, we transform the exchange rate changes into their principal components and specify univariate GARCH models for all components. Second, we use the inverse of the principal components construction to transform the conditional component moments back into those...

2008
Yang K. Lu Pierre Perron

We consider the estimation of a random level shift model for which the series of interest is the sum of a short memory process and a jump or level shift component. For the latter component, we specify the commonly used simple mixture model such that the component is the cumulative sum of a process which is 0 with some probability (1−α) and is a random variable with probability α. Our estimation...

2010
Indrajit Roy

The paper estimate 1-day Value at Risk (VaR) taking into consideration the financial integration of Indian capital market (BSE-SENSEX and NSE-NIFTY) with other global indicators and its own volatility using daily returns covering the period January 2003 to December 2009. The paper specifies a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework to model the phenomena of v...

2009
Bin Chen

Modelling and detecting structural changes in GARCH processes have attracted a great amount of attention in econometrics over the past few years. We generalize Dahlhaus and Rao (2006)’s time varying ARCH processes to time varying GARCH processes and show the consistency of the weighted quasi maximum likelihood estimator. A class of generalized likelihood ratio tests are proposed to check smooth...

2000
Wolfgang Polasek Lei Ren

After the so-called Asia crisis in the summer of 1997 the nancial markets were shaken by increased volatility transmission around the world. Therefore, in this paper we will analyse the daily exchange rates in New York, Germany, and Japan for the period of 2 years (June 21, 1996 to June 22, 1998). We estimate a VAR-GARCH in mean model and estimate the multivariate volatility e ects between the ...

1998
Saikat Nandi Steven L. Heston

This paper shows how one can obtain a continuous-time preference-free option pricing model with a path-dependent volatility as the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model. In particular, the continuous-time model is the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model of Heston and Nandi (1997) that allows asymmetry between returns and volatility. For the continuous-time model, one can directly compute closed...

2007
Z. Y. Zhang

Most studies on the asymmetric and non-linear properties of US business cycles exclude the dimension of asymmetric conditional volatility. Engle (1982) proposes an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model to capture the time-varying volatility of inflation rates in the United Kingdom. Weiss (1984) finds evidence of ARCH in the US industrial production. The ARCH model is then e...

2007
Daniel B. Nelson

Since their introduction by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), respectively, autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models have found extraordinarily wide use. The survey article by Bollerslev, Chou, and Kroner (1982) cited more than 300 papers applying ARCH, GARCH, and other closely related models. As they showed, A...

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