BACKGROUND In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. METHODS We take a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model based on projected economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using ...

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model In...

Regional and coastal mean sea level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) account only for vertical land motion (VLM) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which may significantly under- or over-estimate sea level rise. Here we adjust AR5-like regional projections with the VLM from Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) meas...

Society relies on Earth system models (ESMs) to project future climate and carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the soil C response to climate change is highly uncertain in these models1,2 and they omit key biogeochemical mechanisms3–5. Specifically, the traditional approach in ESMs lacks direct microbial control over soil C dynamics6–8. Thus, we tested a new model that explicitly represents microb...

Lance B. Price, Benjamin J. Koch, and Bruce A. Hungate Milken Institute School of Public Health, The George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052; Division of Pathogen Genomics, Translational Genomics Research Institute, Flagstaff, AZ 86001; Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011; and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona U...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which new projections are given for global-mean warming in the absence of policies to limit climate change. The full warming range over 1990 to 2100, 1.4 degrees to 5.8 degrees C, is substantially higher than the range given previously in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Here we in...

  Introduction: Monte Carlo (MC) is the most common method for simulating virtual SPECT projections. It is useful for optimizing procedures, evaluating correction algorithms and more recently image reconstruction as a forward projector in iterative algorithms; however, the main drawback of MC is its long run time. We introduced a model based method considering the eff...

for a paper to be presented at 27th IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan, South Korea. Conference session: 601 International migration Guy Abel, Nikola Sander and Samir K.C. Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, tota...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political at...