in this paper, by using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, optimal monetary rule derived for central bank of iran. monetary transmission mechanism of the model includes four equations, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, oil price and taylor rule. we have proved that dynamic structure of aggregate demand relation, regarding monetary inflation in iran, is a function of money growth rate. wi...

The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of both inflation and output. At the same time, numerous financial and other "imbalances" (defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms) have emerged. Should these imbalances revert to the mean, there could be significant effects on output ...

Premiums on U.S. sovereign CDS have risen to persistently elevated levels since the financial crisis. We ask whether these premiums reflect the probability of a fiscal default – a state in which budget balance can no longer be restored by raising taxes or eroding the real value of debt by raising inflation. We develop an equilibrium macrofinance model in which the fiscal and monetary policy sta...

This paper explains market turbulence, such as the recent dot-com boom/bust cycle, as equilibrium industry dynamics driven by the synergy between new and existing technologies. When a major technological innovation arrives, a wave of new firms implement the innovation and enter the market. However, if the innovation complements existing technology, some new entrants later will be forced out as ...

I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...

This paper examines the interactions between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), inequality, and growth, both from an empirical and a theoretical point of view. Using a panel of 119 developing countries, we observe that FDI promotes both inequality and growth, and tends to reduce the share of agriculture to GDP in the recipient country. We then set up a growth model of a dual economy in which the ...

As the chances of a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade liberalization under the WTO become increasingly problematic, so the pace of negotiating local free trade agreements (FTAs) is increasing. According to the WTO report, countries in the Asia-Pacific region are “consolidating their drive towards regionalism at an accelerated pace”. After the trade agreements between China an...

t his paper investigates the asymmetric behavior of inflation. we use logistic smooth transition autoregressive (lstar) model to characterize the regime-switching behavior of iran’s monthly inflation during the period may 1990 to december 2013. we find that there is a triple relationship between the inflation level, its fluctuations and persistence. the findings imply that the behavior of infla...

This study explores the link between economic growth and penile length between 1960 and 1985. It estimates an augmented Solow model utilizing the Mankiw-Romer-Weil 121 country dataset. The size of male organ is found to have an inverse U-shaped relationship with the level of GDP in 1985. Economic development between 1960 and 1985 is negatively associated with the size of male organ. With consid...