the agricultural products’ market has always been faced with many structural problems such as marketing weakness, price fluctuations and inadequate infrastructure and transportation in iran. a major cause of such structural problems has been referred to the traditional and inefficient structure of the agricultural products’ market. hence, iran mercantile exchange started its activity since 2007...

My paper is the first to provide long-term evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I explore a new annual data-set on prices and production of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Long-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by persistent “world output-driven demand shocks” and “other demand shocks”. Historical accounts of ...

After a four-year period during which crude oil was trading at an average of $115/bl (Baffes et al, 2015), prices started to plummet in June 2014, raising immediate concerns about the resilience of energy transition processes. At that time, some argued that the expansion of clean energy solutions would not be derailed, referring inter alia to the cyclical nature of oil prices; because a swift r...

The extensive fluctuations in oil prices have vast impacts on economies. The economical instability may be observed for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries due to high volatility of oil prices. Oil price data as a time series is a highly nonlinear system which exhibits complex patterns. Traditional oil time series analysis employs statistical methods to model and explain the oil data...

Article history: Accepted 16 December 2015 Available online xxxx This study aims to forecast oil prices using evolutionary techniques such as gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (NN) models to predict oil prices over the period from January 2, 1986 to June 12, 2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are employed to benchmark evolutionary models....

On the timing of non-renewable resource extraction with regime switching prices This paper develops a model of a profit maximizing firm with the option to exploit a nonrenewable resource, choosing the timing and pace of development. The resource price is modelled as a regime switching process, which is calibrated to oil futures prices. A HamiltonJacobi-Bellman equation is specified that describ...

Between December 2009 and January 2010, we conducted a nationally representative telephone survey of US adults (n = 1001; completion rate = 52.9%) to explore perceptions of risks associated with peak petroleum. We asked respondents to assess the likelihood that oil prices would triple over the next 5 years and then to estimate the economic and health consequences of that event. Nearly half (48%...

Forecasting of oil prices has always been a matter of great importance due to its influence in driving a country’s economy. As a matter of fact, the petroleum industry is considered to be the biggest contributor in the industrial sector in terms of providing raw materials to the other industries and generating revenues. Due to the non-linear and unpredictable nature of the oil prices, a lot of ...

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of energy consumption on economic growth by including oil prices, capital and labour as additional determinants in production function. In doing so, the non-linear ARDL bounds testing approach is applied for the period of 1985QI-2016QIV. The empirical evidence confirms the presence of symmetric and asymmetric cointegration between energy consumption...

We estimate the effects of oil price changes on inflation for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan using an augmented Phillips curve framework. We supplement the traditional Phillips curve approach taking into account the growing body of evidence suggesting that oil prices may have asymmetric and nonlinear effects on output and that structural instabilities may exist in...