This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

the aim of this research is to analyse of empirical relationship of fiscal policy and iranian trade account in the years 1338-1385(1959-2006). in and econometrics model the methods of engle and granger (1987), johansen (1988), ardl, pessaran and shin(1998), philips and hansen(1990), have been used to find out the effects of variables such as government expenditures(the component of public deman...

The objective of this paper is to quantify Lobbying Effectiveness for trade policy. I introduce this measure into Grossman and Helpman’s (1994, American Economic Review 84: 833–850) model of protection-for-sale (PFS). Two alternate factors are suggested to explain differences in lobbying effectiveness across sectors; first, predisposition of the government to supply protection (owing arguably t...

This paper tests the implication of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem that capital-poor individuals prefer more trade openness in poor (capital-scarce) countries and less trade in rich (labor-scarce) countries, by using a broad panel of countries and new exogenous determinants of trade openness. According to the seminal work in Mayer (1984), capital-poor individuals prefer more trade openness in po...

This paper analyzes the impact of policy reform in basic telecommunications on sectoral performance using a new panel data set for 86 developing countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean over the period 1985 to 1999. We address three questions. First, what impact do specific policy changes – relating to ownership and competition – have on sectoral performan...

This paper applies an endogenous lobby formation model to explain the extent of trade protection granted to Brazilian manufacturing industries during the 19881994 trade liberalization episode. Using a panel data set covering this period, we find that even in an environment in which a major regime shift has been introduced, more concentrated sectors have been able to obtain policy advantages, th...

this paper investigates the impact of oil revenues on the output of economic sectors in some of oil exporting countries including iran, venezuela and mexico. we use cointegration analysis as well as short run and long run granger casualties' tests. the results show that in the long run, an oil boom leads to expansion of service sector, in these countries. also, the impacts of oil revenues ...

  This paper examines impact of trade liberalization on industrial growth of India. The research problem is expressed as “To what extent does trade liberalization or openness of the economy influence industrial growth of India?” To identify the impacts of trade liberalization, total time period, 1970-2010, is divided into two sub periods of before trade liberalization i.e. (1970 to 1990) an...

When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, partners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the elasticity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find of tariff-exclusive flows is ?0.76 in run, approximately ?2 run. Our long-run estimates are smaller than typical literature, it takes 7 to10 years to co...

Abstract—The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statist...