Compared to the conventional methods, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are considered to be one of the reliable tools for modeling of complex phenomena such as demand. Aim of this study is to provide a model for gasoline demand in transportation section of Tehran metropolis through multilayered perceptron neural network and using the presented model in analyzing the sensitivity of the model to ...

Although team allegiance is usually associated with optimistic predictions about team performance, the authors hypothesized that preferences for one’s group can also lead to pessimistic predictions. Upon arrival to the laboratory, groups of four participants were split into teams of two based on bogus criteria. Participants were informed that their teammate would compete against a member of the...

We consider the problem of finding shortest paths on the surface of uncertain terrains. In this paper, a terrain is a triangulated 2D surface in 3D such that every vertical line intersects the surface at most once. Terrains of this type are used to represent, for example, a piece of the earth’s surface, and are typically inexact. We model their uncertainty by allowing the terrain vertices to ha...

Addressing deficit irrigation scheduling (DIS) for strategic crop production (especially wheat) under precipitation uncertainty is a priority for irrigation scheduling in drought conditions. This research investigated the precipitation uncertainty by enacting optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the next 20 years by considering the statistical record of climate in Badjgah area. DIS was cond...

To address the adaptive value of optimism/pessimism an operational definition is required. I define a behavioural decision as relatively optimistic if it is consistent with the animal having either, a higher expectation of reward, or a lower expectation of punishment (threat), than the same animal in a different state (or a different animal). Pessimism is the inverse of optimism. Such relative ...

We prove that under mild conditions individually rational Pareto optima will exist even in presence of non-convex preferences. We consider decision makers dealing with a countable flow of payoffs or choosing among financial assets whose outcomes depend on the realization of a countable set of states of the world. Our conditions for the existence of Pareto optima can be interpreted as a requirem...