Recently, there has been a renewed interest in modeling economic time series by vector autoregressive moving-average models. However, this class of models has been unpopular in practice because of estimation problems and the complexity of the identification stage. These disadvantages could have led to the dominant use of vector autoregressive models in macroeconomic research. In this paper, sev...

This paper concerns the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the covariance structure of US government bond returns for six different maturities; the study shows that the conditional variances, covariances, and correlation coefficients are significantly greater on announcement days. On non-announcement days, the correlation coefficients are relatively large and are greater the closer the b...

Confidence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer from notorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependence in the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as is often the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using the studentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as the choice of the block size. A particular da...

We estimate and test the conditional version of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. Since our approach is fully parametric, we can recover any quantity that is a function of the first two conditional moments. Our findings strongly support a model which includes both market and foreign exchange risk. However, both sources of risk are only...

We implement novel tests of general relative purchasing power parity (PPP), defined as a long-run unit elasticity of the nominal exchange rate with respect to relative national prices, allowing for potentially permanent real exchange rate shocks. The finite-sample properties of the estimators used are analyzed through Monte Carlo analysis, allowing for country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dep...

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of real equity prices in Australia is specified to contain common shocks in international equity markets and domestic shocks in Australian financial and goods markets. Common shocks are identified through the long-run comovements of international equity markets, resulting in the model being characterized as having more shocks than variables. The e...

This paper analyzes the role of production distortion for income redistribution in an international trade model. In particular, this paper examines the role of the Stolper and Samuelson effect (Stolper and Samuelson 1941) on efficient income redistribution. It first shows that production inefficiency can be a part of a Pareto-efficient tax system when there is an asymmetric information problem ...

Some challenges for econometric research on trending time series are discussed in relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making. JEL Classi...cation: C32, C53, E10

In this paper, employing VAR and factor analytic models with quarterly U.K. sectoral business investment data, we show that both common and sector–specific shocks play important roles in explaining business investment fluctuations. JEL: C32, E22, E32.

abstract in this paper we test two versions of convergence hypothesis namely deterministic or conditional convergence and stochastic or catching up hypothesis using carrion-i-silvestre et al. (2005) stationary test. the results show latin and south american countries (lsa) catching up process toward the usa failed in 1980s and somewhat in 1990s. but in 2000s most of them could lie in convergenc...