Abstract Earthquake forecasting models express hypotheses about seismogenesis that underpin global and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). An implicit assumption is the comparatively higher spatiotemporal resolution datasets from which are generated lead to more informative seismicity forecasts than models, however calibrated on greater of large earthquakes. Here, we pros...

This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with "intermediate" lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic activity. Here, we look for a renormalizati...

We investigate on the capability of the strongest earthquakes to modify significantly the seismicity in a wide spatio-temporal window. In particular, we show that the strongest earthquakes of last century were probably able to influence the seismicity at large spatio-temporal distances, extending their reach over thousand of kilometers and decades later. We report statistically significant diff...

We describe a model to estimate event rates of a non-homogeneous spatio-temporal Poisson process. A Bayesian change point model is described to detect changes in temporal rates. The model is used to estimate whether a change in event rates occurred for a process at a given location, the time of change, and the event rates before and after the change. To estimate spatially varying rates, the spa...

We study deep aseismic slip along the central section of the San Jacinto Fault, near the Anza Seismic Gap, in southern California. Elevated strain-rates following the remote Mw7.2 April 4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah and the local Mw5.4, July 7, 2010 Collins Valley earthquakes were recorded by Plate Boundary Observatory borehole strain-meters near Anza, and were accompanied by vigorous aftershock seq...

growing environmental and social concerns, both on the part of decision makers and public opinion, have brought a new perspective to the perception of hazard assessments a valid alternative in the long-term, and an effective complement in short and medium terms, to traditional design procedure for a resistant and safe environment. results of the gradual development of research on the probabilis...

1Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China *Corresponding author address: Prof. Qinghua Huang, Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China; E-mail: [email protected] A statistical method, which is called the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm and takes into account information suc...

Reservoir-induced seismicity has been observed near Koyna Dam, India since the early 1960s. In order to understand the seismotectonics of the region we analyzed available seismicity data from 1963 to 1995. Over 300 earthquakes with M]3.0 were relocated using revised location parameters (station locations, velocity model, station delays and Vp /Vs ratio). The spatial pattern of earthquakes was i...

Widespread seismicity was triggered by the June 28, 1992, Landers California, earthquake at a rate which was maximum immediately after passage of the exciting seismic waves. Rectified diffusion of vapor from hydrothermal liquids and magma into bubbles oscillating in an earthquake can increase the local pore pressure to seismically significant levels within the duration of the earthquake. In a h...

S U M M A R Y I n order to understand the underlying physics of distributed seismicity better we have considered a 2-D array of slider blocks connected by springs and interacting via static friction with a surface. There is no driving plate in this model. The time evolution of the system is found from numerical simulations in a cellular automata formulation. Energy is conserved and is the singl...