This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean–atmosphere models....

abstract drastic precipitations in unmorally times always are one of the important factors that created abundant damages in different geographical areas. in this research, three precipitations that occurred in summer 2009 in mashhad were investigated. the investigation of variation graphs of meteorological parameters show significant decreasing of air pressure and temperature and increasing of ...

This study set out to investigate the trends of agriculturally-relevant rainfall characteristics among small-scale farmers in the rainfall-sensitive dry savanna agro-ecological zone of northern Ghana. Interviews are used to identify characteristics of rainfall which are deemed by the farmers as important in their food production. Time series daily rainfall data from 1960-2007 is then used to id...

Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30–60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over th...

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South A...

We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulat...

The continuous occurrence of changes in the global climate causes significant variability in the seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall pattern, which often leads to frequent floods and droughts in India. To reduce the magnitude of effect of such natural calamities and for better management of water resources, it is essential to predict the rainfall, well in advance. In this study the possible re...

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can fertilize plant growth. The resulting increased plant uptake of CO2 could, in turn, slow increases in atmospheric CO2 levels and associated climate warming. CO2 fertilization e ects may be enhanced when water availability is low, because elevated CO2 also leads to improved plant water-use e ciency. However, CO2 fertilization e ects may be weaker when pl...

BACKGROUND Declining water quality coupled with the effects of climate change are rapidly increasing coral diseases on reefs worldwide, although links between coral diseases and environmental parameters remain poorly understood. This is the first study to document a correlation between coral disease and water quality on an inshore reef. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The temporal dynamics of ...

To elucidate the mechanism for how the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) variability have influenced the isotope proxy records in Japan, we explore the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales). Using a new 1-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation and continuous near-surface water vapor at Na...