Political observers, campaign experts, and academics alike argue bitterly over whether it is more important for a party to capture ideologically moderate swing voters or to encourage turnout among hardcore partisans. We speak to this debate by examining the link between the ideology of congressional candidates and the turnout of their parties’ bases in U.S. House races, 2006–2012. Combining a r...

I use variation across markets in the timing of television’s introduction to identify its impact on voter turnout. The estimated e¤ect is signi…cantly negative, accounting for between a quarter and a half of the total decline in turnout since the 1950s. It is robust to a range of controls and alternative speci…cations, and interacts intuitively with county characteristics. I argue that substitu...

Using an agent-based simulation of electoral participation this paper examines the cascading effects of an exogenous increase in turnout. We simulate the voting behaviour of agents in a pool of 1,000 households with characteristics based on survey data and whose rules about interactions and behaviours are dictated by existing evidence. This model simulates the interplay between many factors imp...

We analyze a psychologically-based model of voter turnout. Potential voters experience regret if they fail to vote, which is the motivation for participation in voting. Regret from abstention is inversely related to the margin of victory. Voters on the winner’s side experience less regret than those on the loser’s side. We show that the unique equilibrium involves positive voter turnout. We sho...

How do measures to increase turnout affect election outcomes? I use a novel approach to analyze how these measures influence both voter turnout and the candidates’ political positions. Generally, lowering the net expense of voting reduces political polarization. If the net expense of voting is made very low, then candidates no longer have an incentive to take partisan positions to motivate turn...

Prior experimental research has demonstrated that voter turnout rises substantially when people receive mailings that indicate whether they voted in previous elections. This effect suggests that voters are sensitive to whether their compliance with the norm of voting is being monitored. The present study extends this line of research by investigating whether disclosure of past participation has...

This paper develops a unified approach to study participation and voting in multiple elections. The theoretical setting combines an “uncertain-voter” model of turnout with a spatial model of voting behavior. We apply our framework to the study of turnout and voting in U.S. presidential and congressional elections. We structurally estimate the model using individual-level data for the 2000 elect...

• Austrian repeal of compulsory voting provides exogenous decline in turnout. Turnout affects intergenerational redistribution through public education spending. reduces spending when the old are sufficiently numerous electorate. increases young rich numerous. Electoral reforms that lead to reduced turnout modify composition electorate, potentially overrepresenting specific interests policy imp...

Abstract Despite decades of research, there is no consensus as to the core correlates national-level voter turnout. We argue that this is, in part, due lack comprehensive, systematic empirical analysis. This paper conducts such an identify 44 articles on turnout from 1986 2017. These include over 127 potential predictors turnout, and we collect data seventy these variables. Using extreme bounds...

The effect of minority districts and minority representation on political participation in California / Claudine Gay. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. Short sections of text, not to exceed three par...